The Recalibration of the National Transport Model
PASS1 Demand Model Calibration
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This reports documents the results obtained from the re-estimation of the models which apportion travel to destination area types, distance bands and travel modes for the main demand modelling stage (“PASS1”) of the UK National Travel Model (NTM). The major technical differences introduced to the estimation technique in this study are in the replacement of an aggregate process adopted in the previous estimation with a disaggregate modelling approach based on formal statistical procedures. The database has also been updated to use the National Travel Survey data of 2002 through 2004. The model itself has been left largely unchanged in structure, by design, although a number of tests of alternative structures were made, but advantage has been taken of the new estimation approach, and the increased level of detail in the later datasets, to extend the geographic detail of the model, in particular increasing the number of area types represented, and the number of travel modes identified in the model.
Table of Contents
Overview of NTM
PASS1+ Demand Model
PASS1+ Model Inputs
Summary and Conclusions
Full Model Segmentation in PASS1+
Segmentation Variables Utilised in PASS1+ Models
Bus Times Model
Bus Fares Models
Taxi level of service
Model Estimation Results
Validation Results by Purpose
WebTAG Unit 3.5.6, Section 1.2
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The research described in this report was prepared for the UK Department for Transport and was conducted by RAND Europe.
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