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This reports documents the results obtained from the re-estimation of the models which apportion travel to destination area types, distance bands and travel modes for the main demand modelling stage (“PASS1”) of the UK National Travel Model (NTM). The major technical differences introduced to the estimation technique in this study are in the replacement of an aggregate process adopted in the previous estimation with a disaggregate modelling approach based on formal statistical procedures. The database has also been updated to use the National Travel Survey data of 2002 through 2004. The model itself has been left largely unchanged in structure, by design, although a number of tests of alternative structures were made, but advantage has been taken of the new estimation approach, and the increased level of detail in the later datasets, to extend the geographic detail of the model, in particular increasing the number of area types represented, and the number of travel modes identified in the model.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Overview of NTM

  • Chapter Three

    PASS1+ Demand Model

  • Chapter Four

    PASS1+ Model Inputs

  • Chapter Five

    Model Estimation

  • Chapter Six

    Summary and Conclusions

  • Appendix A

    Full Model Segmentation in PASS1+

  • Appendix B

    Segmentation Variables Utilised in PASS1+ Models

  • Appendix C

    Bus Times Model

  • Appendix D

    Bus Fares Models

  • Appendix E

    Taxi level of service

  • Appendix f

    Model Estimation Results

  • Appendix G

    Validation Results by Purpose

  • Appendix H

    WebTAG Unit 3.5.6, Section 1.2

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the UK Department for Transport and was conducted by RAND Europe.

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