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Manchester Motorway Box

Post-Survey Research of Induced Traffic Effects: Model Estimation

by James Fox, Andrew Daly

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RAND Europe, in conjunction with Mott MacDonald and Denvil Coombe, were commissioned by the UK Department for Transport to conduct research to measure the induced traffic effects resulting from the completion of the Manchester Motorway Box. This project is a culmination of earlier research undertaken by others to assess the feasibility of identifying the induced traffic effects of this scheme and to plan and undertake the necessary data collection.

This particular report describes the development of discrete choice models to provide a measure of the induced traffic effects resulting from the completion of the Manchester Motorway Box. The introduction provides background to the decision to undertake the study, and outlines possible traveller responses to the scheme that collectively are termed induced traffic. The report goes on to describe the particular responses represented in the models, and the modelling approach used to analyse these different choices. Later chapters present model parameters, together with the results of tests to investigate the relative sensitivity of the different choice decisions. Validation of the models is also described, in particular investigations of the elasticities of the models to changes in costs and travel times.

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This report has been produced by RAND Europe under a contract with the Department for Transport.

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