Uncertainty in Traffic Forecasts
Literature Review and New Results for the Netherlands
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Although thousand of papers on transport model forecasts can be found in journals, conference proceedings and reports, the literature on quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts is fairly limited. In this report the authors present an overview of the literature on uncertainty in transport modelling. Furthermore they provide the outcomes of their analysis of uncertainty in traffic forecasts from the Dutch national model system (LMS) and the regional model (NRM) for the Dutch region of Noord-Brabant. Both the literature review and the case studies were part of a research project on quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts that RAND Europe carried out for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. The objectives of this project were to develop a methodology to estimate the amount of uncertainty in forecasting for new infrastructure (especially roads) and to implement and test this methodology in two case-studies (using the LMS and the NRM respectively).
Table of Contents
Integration and assessment of the literature
Treatment of input and model uncertainty in the LMS and NRM runs
Case study 1: the LMS
Case study 2: the NRM
Uncertainty in policy models
Summaries of literature on uncertainty in traffic forecasts
Derivation of analytical expressions for the model uncertainty
Detailed simulation outcomes
Research conducted by
The research described in this report was conducted by RAND Europe for the Transport Research Centre of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management.
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