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In English and Dutch.

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Although thousand of papers on transport model forecasts can be found in journals, conference proceedings and reports, the literature on quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts is fairly limited. In this report the authors present an overview of the literature on uncertainty in transport modelling. Furthermore they provide the outcomes of their analysis of uncertainty in traffic forecasts from the Dutch national model system (LMS) and the regional model (NRM) for the Dutch region of Noord-Brabant. Both the literature review and the case studies were part of a research project on quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts that RAND Europe carried out for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. The objectives of this project were to develop a methodology to estimate the amount of uncertainty in forecasting for new infrastructure (especially roads) and to implement and test this methodology in two case-studies (using the LMS and the NRM respectively).

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Integration and assessment of the literature

  • Chapter Three

    Treatment of input and model uncertainty in the LMS and NRM runs

  • Chapter Four

    Case study 1: the LMS

  • Chapter Five

    Case study 2: the NRM

  • Chapter Six

    Conclusions

  • Appendix 1

    Uncertainty in policy models

  • Appendix 2

    Summaries of literature on uncertainty in traffic forecasts

  • Appendix 3

    Derivation of analytical expressions for the model uncertainty

  • Appendix 4

    Detailed simulation outcomes

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was conducted by RAND Europe for the Transport Research Centre of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management.

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