The Rise of AI: Insights from RAND

Image by Florence Lo/Reuters; design by Haley Okuley/RAND

Artificial intelligence—from machine learning that's already widely used today to the possible artificial general intelligence of the future—has the power to transform the way we live, work, and interact.

AI tools are evolving quickly, and decisionmakers are grappling with how to maximize the potential benefits, minimize the short- and long-term risks, and plan for an uncertain future.

RAND’s rigorous and independent research can help. Our experts have been studying a wide range of questions about the effects and uses of AI: Which jobs are likely to be most affected? How might AI tools be used to support military decisionmaking? What is required to ensure that algorithms don’t worsen inequity?

Answers to these and other important questions can help leaders and policymakers better understand AI and make informed decisions about how to balance promoting innovation while safeguarding against any dangers.

Featured Insights

Military, Defense, and National Security

Commentary
How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?
As artificial intelligence continues to advance, geopolitics may never be the same. The AI development path that ultimately unfolds will matter enormously for the shape and contours of the future world.
Nov 3, 2023

Health and Well-Being

Report
Using AI to Identify Youth Suicide Risk: What Does the Evidence Say?
In response to the youth mental health crisis, some schools have begun using artificial intelligence to help identify students at risk for suicide and self-harm. How are these tools being used? Are they accurate? And what risks might they bring?
Dec 5, 2023

Misinformation, Disinformation, and Media Literacy

Commentary
U.S. Adversaries Can Use Generative AI for Social Media Manipulation
Using generative artificial intelligence technology, U.S. adversaries can manufacture fake social media accounts that seem real. These accounts can be used to advance narratives that serve the interests of those governments and pose a direct challenge to democracies. U.S. government, technology, and policy communities should act fast to counter this threat.
Sep 7, 2023

Jobs, Workers, and the Economy

Visualization
Rage Against the Machine? How AI Could Affect the Future of Work
Understanding how technology and artificial intelligence have—and have not—affected jobs in the past can provide insights on the future of the American workforce. What is the relationship between occupational exposure and technologies, wages, and employment related to artificial intelligence?
Oct 11, 2023

Technology Governance and Regulation

Report
AI Governance: Lessons from Earlier Technologies
What can be done to maximize AI's benefits while minimizing its potential risks? The approaches to governing four earlier technologies—nuclear technology, the internet, encryption products, and genetic engineering—may provide valuable insights.
Aug 19, 2024

Featured Experts

Scores of RAND researchers are studying AI from countless angles, providing key insights that can inform the use and regulation of AI tools now and in the future.

It's admirable, if grandiose, to adopt as one's mission nothing less than building tools to tackle humanity's greatest challenges. But AI technologies will likely fall short of that lofty goal—rapid yet responsible technological advancement—if its developers fall prey to a fundamental human flaw: refusing to heed hard truths from those who would know.

Douglas Yeung

Associate Director, Management, Technology, and Capabilities Program, RAND Homeland Security Research Division
Source: San Francisco Chronicle
I don't think AI poses an irreversible harm to humanity. I think it can worsen our lives. I think it can have long-lasting harm. But I think it's ultimately something that we can recover from.

Jonathan W. Welburn

Senior Researcher
Source: rand.org
From our recent research, it appears that extremist groups have been testing AI tools, including chatbots, but there seems to be little evidence of large-scale coordinated efforts in this space. However, chatbots are likely to present a risk, as they are capable of recognising and exploiting emotional vulnerabilities and can encourage violent behaviours.

Pauline Paillé

Senior Analyst
Source: Euronews

See all RAND AI experts See all RAND AI content

The Veterans Left Behind: Eligibility for VA Benefits and Other Than Honorable Discharges

U.S. Military Basing and Access in the Indo-Pacific

Russia Is Riding an Anti-Colonial Wave Across Africa

Is AI Threatening Health Care Jobs? Or Just Changing Them?

Climate Change and Critical Infrastructure: Assessing the Risks and Identifying Mitigation Strategies

The Policy Currents Podcast

Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research

Improving Access to Early Childhood Education

The Rise of AI: Insights from RAND

The Rise of AI: Insights from RAND

Featured Insights

Why AI Projects Fail and How They Can Succeed

Is AI an Existential Risk? Q&A with RAND Experts

Addressing the Challenges of Algorithmic Equity

Military, Defense, and National Security

How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?

Does AI Increase the Operational Risk of Biological Attacks?

How the DHS AI Roadmap Could Reach Its Intended Destination

Building a Foundation for Strategic Stability with China on AI

Private-Sector Innovation Could Help Defend Taiwan

AUKUS Collaboration on Responsible Military AI

Can Machine Learning Improve Military Decisionmaking?

Artificial Intelligence Systems in Intelligence Analysis

Army Analytic Capabilities

Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control

The Department of Defense's Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations for Improvement

Health and Well-Being

Using AI to Identify Youth Suicide Risk: What Does the Evidence Say?

Culturally Appropriate Care in the Age of AI

Bringing New Technologies to Bear for Biosurveillance

Robots, Drones, and AI, Oh My: Navigating the New Frontier of Military Medicine

Nations Must Collaborate on AI and Biotech—or Be Left Behind

Machine Learning and Gene Editing at the Helm of a Societal Evolution

Progress or Peril? The Brave New World of Self-Driving Science Labs

Using Claims-Based Algorithms to Predict Activity, Mobility, and Memory Limitations

Artificial Intelligence (AI) use in adult social care

Artificial Intelligence in the COVID-19 Response

The Internet of Bodies Will Change Everything, for Better or Worse

Misinformation, Disinformation, and Media Literacy

U.S. Adversaries Can Use Generative AI for Social Media Manipulation

Generative Artificial Intelligence Threats to Information Integrity

Biden Should Call China's Bluff on Responsible AI to Safeguard the 2024 Elections

Can People Identify Deepfakes?

The AI Conspiracy Theories Are Coming

The Threat of Deepfakes

Machine Learning Can Detect Online Conspiracy Theories

Jobs, Workers, and the Economy

Rage Against the Machine? How AI Could Affect the Future of Work

Technological and Economic Threats to the U.S. Financial System

Advancing Equitable Decisionmaking for the Department of Defense Through Fairness in Machine Learning

Can Artificial Intelligence Help Improve Air Force Talent Management?

Money, Markets, and Machine Learning: Unpacking the Risks of Adversarial AI

Technology Governance and Regulation

AI Governance: Lessons from Earlier Technologies

Artificial Intelligence Impacts on Privacy Law

AI Companies Say Safety Is a Priority. It's Not

Securing AI Model Weights: Q&A with Sella Nevo

When AI Gets It Wrong, Will It Be Held Accountable?

Tools for Trustworthy AI in the United Kingdom and the United States

Advancing Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence

Tackling the Existential Threats from Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring That Government Use of Technology Serves the Public

Artificial Intelligence: Challenges and Opportunities for the Department of Defense

Challenges to U.S. National Security and Competitiveness Posed by Artificial Intelligence

Featured Experts