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Commentary

Mar 4, 2024

Moscow's History of Unforced Errors Is the West's Hidden Advantage

In challenging the West, Russia often shoots itself in the foot. It has done so again with the murder of Alexei Navalny. While policymakers cannot count on Russian blunders continuing, it's worth considering the number of unforced errors Moscow has committed over the years and their consequences.
Report

Feb 22, 2024

Managing Escalation: Lessons and Challenges from Three Historical Crises Between Nuclear-Armed Powers

Using three historical case studies, the authors examine the ability of past decisionmakers to identify adversary thresholds and to apply this information to control escalation during militarized crises between nuclear-armed states.
Journal Article

Feb 1, 2024

The Autocrat's Predicament: The Political Peril of Economic Upgrade in Single-Party Authoritarian Regimes

In their quest for national revival, China's leaders under Xi Jinping have sought to improve the economy's performance. The disappointing economic record of authoritarian regimes provides ample grounds for doubt, yet not all have failed. Why have some succeeded where most did not?
Commentary

Aug 17, 2023

Winning the Tech Cold War

Emerging technologies increasingly make it possible for machines to innovate much faster and more efficiently than humans ever could. The Pentagon can draw some important lessons for technology competition with China by looking at the U.S.-Soviet race to develop nuclear weapons during the Cold War.
Commentary

May 23, 2023

Putin Is Following Brezhnev to a Dead End

Four decades ago, Leonid Brezhnev led the USSR into what many Soviets called the “era of stagnation.” Vladimir Putin is taking Russia down a similar path. The USSR tried to recover by turning to reform-minded leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, but too late. The USSR collapsed. Could Russia?
Research Brief

May 17, 2023

What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
Report

May 17, 2023

Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
Commentary

Oct 19, 2022

The West and Russia the Day After

In the 1990s, after the breakup of the USSR, the West adapted to and helpfully influenced the birth of 15 new republics. If liberalizing change comes anew, the West may seek to help Russia heal itself for the long term.
Commentary

Mar 18, 2022

If Regime Change Were to Come to Moscow

Strains in Russia over the war in Ukraine and punishing economic sanctions could spark regime change in Moscow. Although prospects for this are uncertain, the West might be prudent to begin considering how to deal with any new government.
Commentary

Sep 20, 2021

Summit Gives Biden Chance to Nudge Post-Soviet States Toward Democracy

President Biden may invite Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine to his “summit for democracy” in December. By both praising and nudging these imperfect democracies to do more to achieve their democratic potential, Biden could give his agenda more meaning.
Commentary

May 17, 2021

How America Can Help Re-Shape the Post-Soviet Countries

For the post-Soviet states, development could bring better living standards and social conditions and promote more stable politics and inclusive governance. The West would make the most difference by focusing on mid-ranked states, especially those undertaking reforms.
Commentary

Dec 28, 2020

Arms Control Held Hostage

President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.

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