Jason H. Campbell

Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers

The sudden end to America's longest war came as the Taliban rolled into Kabul and the government collapsed. RAND researchers share their thoughts on how to help displaced Afghans, whether the country could again become a safe haven for terrorists, and the geopolitical implications of the collapse.

Intelligence Losses Pose Large Risks as U.S. Troops Head Home

Departing theaters such as Syria and Afghanistan carries a host of associated risks, challenges and potential benefits. Leaders would be well served to factor into the debate the importance of U.S. intelligence collection capabilities, its connection to U.S. presence overseas and its role in anticipating current and future threats.

The Fall of Kunduz and What It Means for the Future of Afghanistan

After the fall of Kunduz, Afghan officials and their coalition partners need to ask some hard questions about where their efforts have gone wrong and what can be done to recover.

RAND Experts Q&A on the Fighting in Kunduz

The Taliban battled its way into the center of Kunduz this week, with media reports saying it seized control of the northern Afghanistan city at least for a time. A trio of RAND experts participated in a Q&A on the situation and its significance.

A Better Afghan Strategy: Lose the Timeline

It's in America's strategic interest to once and for all do away with its arbitrary timeline in favor of a strategy that provides its Afghan partners with something to preserve and nurture, not something to dread losing.

Q&A: What to Expect from Ghani's U.S. Visit

With Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's first official visit to the United States set to begin Sunday, a trio of RAND researchers discuss what to expect after the president and his chief executive officer, Abdullah Abdullah, arrive in Washington.

What's the Plan? The Afghan National Security Forces

The Afghan National Security Forces remain very much a work in progress. In the coming months, the resiliency and cohesiveness of the ANSF will be put to the test as the NATO coalition transitions to a non-combat mission. Growing pains can be expected.

What's the Plan? The NATO Coalition in Afghanistan

The imminent changes to the NATO mission in Afghanistan will be profound and, more crucially, carry unpredictable outcomes. After January 1, the removal of tens of thousands of coalition troops will trigger an inevitable period of adjustment as all sides involved in the conflict press for a new equilibrium that tilts in its favor.

What's the Plan? The Afghan Government

With the election dispute having reached a settlement, one can sense a feeling of hope and opportunity among the Afghan political spectrum. Members of each camp are voicing optimism and saying the right things, but before the unity government can address the litany of issues facing the country, it must first successfully clear the hurdle of appointing new leadership.

The Pernicious Effects of Uncertainty in Afghanistan

While upcoming elections and sustained Taliban attacks are keeping many Afghans on edge, the greatest long-term threat to Afghanistan right now is the slow, insidious rot of uncertainty that is permeating nearly every facet of Afghan society.

Take Two for the Taliban?

This time, the Taliban do not have the luxury of ingratiating themselves as purveyors of justice amidst chaos, only to later reveal themselves as bullying extremists. Moreover, in a post-9/11 world the international community now understands the potential ramifications of allowing such extremism to metastasize unchecked.

Reading the Tea Leaves in Iraq

The United States should not be too quick to write off Iraq based on recent violent trends, says Jason Campbell. After all, if there is anything that should be remembered from years past it's that the Iraqi populace can endure astonishing levels of violence and still maintain confidence in the survival of the state.

Bringing the Taliban to the Table: Long-Term Prospects for the Afghan Peace Talks

The Afghan government and the Taliban have signaled that the United States would be the most suitable third-party interlocutor and most effective at holding the parties to their word in any agreement. Yet the U.S. must accept that the timeline must be organically determined by the Afghans and not manufactured to meet a predetermined schedule, writes Jason Campbell.

Report

Staying the Unfavorable Course: National Security Council Decisionmaking and the Inertia of U.S. Afghanistan Policy, 2001–2016

The authors examined the reasons behind the inertia of the U.S. policy objective in Afghanistan through interviews with the senior leaders involved in policy deliberations between 2001 and 2016.

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Assessment and Selection for U.S. Air Force Special Warfare: Vol. 1, Defining Attributes and Designing Rater Training

Air Force Special Warfare warrants specialized assessment and selection of future operators. The authors examine the nontechnical attributes needed to conduct challenging missions and the process for selecting candidates who can succeed.

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U.S. Resourcing to National Security Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of Adversary Activities in the Region

The authors assess the sufficiency of resources available to pursue U.S. national security objectives in the Western Hemisphere and describe the activities and investments of China, Russia, and Iran in the region.

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Prioritizing Security Cooperation with Highly Capable U.S. Allies: Framing Army-to-Army Partnerships

In this report, researchers present recommendations for enabling the U.S. Army to better prioritize and coordinate its security cooperation activities with its allies for coalition operations and engagements in third countries.

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Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

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Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States: Executive Summary

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

Commentary

DDR in Afghanistan: Disarming, Demobilizing, and Reintegrating Afghan Combatants in Accordance with a Peace Agreement

The authors identify best practices in the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration field in the context of conditions in Afghanistan and recommend steps that the U.S. Army and Government can take to advise and assist the Afghan government.

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Physical Task Simulations: Performance Measures for the Validation of Physical Tests and Standards for Battlefield Airmen

This report describes RAND's assistance to the Air Force in designing physical task simulations to evaluate the physical capabilities required to perform critical physical tasks in six battlefield airmen occupational specialties.

Commentary

Consequences of a Precipitous U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

In December 2018, President Donald Trump directed the Secretary of Defense to reduce the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan by half. In this paper, the authors consider the likely effects of an early and complete or near-complete departure.

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Evaluation of the Strength Aptitude Test and Other Fitness Tests to Qualify Air Force Recruits for Physically Demanding Specialties

This report evaluates the Strength Aptitude Test and related fitness tests to identify strategies for ensuring airmen can meet job-related physical requirements.

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Implications of the Security Cooperation Office Transition in Afghanistan for Special Operations Forces: An Abbreviated Report of the Study's Primary Findings

Presents findings from six historical case studies in which the mission of special operations forces in each of the six countries transitioned over time to include some level of inclusion in the U.S. embassy's Security Cooperation Office.

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Organising for Peace Operations: Lessons Learned from Bougainville, East Timor, and the Solomon Islands

This report examines the governmental organizational structures that were used in three Australian-led interventions that commenced in the late 1990s and early 2000s in the Southwest Pacific regions: Bougainville, East Timor, and the Solomon Islands.

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Stretching and Exploiting Thresholds for High-Order War: How Russia, China, and Iran Are Eroding American Influence Using Time-Tested Measures Short of War

Russia, China, and Iran use measures short of war to exploit and stretch U.S. thresholds for war to further their strategic ends. This report describes those measures, how nation-states use them, and why U.S. notions of thresholds might be outdated.

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Countering Others' Insurgencies: Understanding U.S. Small-Footprint Interventions in Local Context

This report describes counterinsurgency strategies and practices and conditions in which U.S. small-footprint partnerships may succeed. Case studies of the Philippines and Pakistan reinforce quantitative findings and highlight challenges for the U.S. in influencing partners.

Research Brief

Partner Capacity in Counterinsurgency Campaigns

Success stories in small-footprint U.S. interventions have occurred in countries with inclusive politics and reasonable state capacity. Unfortunately, most insurgencies seek to overthrow regimes that are weak in inclusion and capacity.

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Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of United States Forces-Iraq

This book looks at the planning and execution of the U.S. military's exit from Iraq and the transition of responsibilities to the Iraqi government, U.S. embassy, Office of Security Cooperation, USCENTCOM, and other U.S. departments and agencies.

Research Brief

Smooth Transitions? Lessons Learned from Transferring U.S. Military Responsibilities to Civilian Authorities in Iraq

This brief outlines policy and planning lessons that have been encapsulated in a study of the U.S. military's transition out of Iraq at the end of 2011 and the handover of property and responsibilities to Embassy Baghdad and the government of Iraq.

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Assessing Freedom of Movement for Counterinsurgency Campaigns

This report examines how a military staff might assess freedom of movement as a strategic and tactical indicator in counterinsurgency, and specifically in Afghanistan.