Beth Grill

Senior Policy Analyst

Pittsburgh Office

Education

M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies and Economics, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; B.A. in international studies, Johns Hopkins University

One Page Bio

Overview

Beth Grill is a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation with eighteen years of experience conducting national security policy research. She has been a principal investigator and lead author of a series of key studies security cooperation and partner nation assessment for the US Air Force, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Combatant Commands. She recently published a report on DoD security cooperation spending for the Office of Secretary of Defense and study on the enhancement partner nation capacity to support medical operations in denied environments for the U.S. European Command. Grill has a Master's degree in Middle East studies and Economics from The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. She served as a Presidential Management Fellow and as a policy analyst at the US Department of Commerce, where she concentrated on export controls of chemical and biological weapons precursors.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Enhancing Partner Nation Medical Capabilities through Targeted Investment and Engagement in EUCOM
Follow the Money: Promoting Transparency in U.S. DoD Security Cooperation Reporting
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition,
U.S. Air Force Security Cooperation Metrics project
Security Cooperation Strategic Evaluation

Selected Publications

Beth Grill, Michael J. McNerney, Jeremy Boback, Renanah Miles, Cynthia Clapp-Wincek, and David Thaler, Follow the Money: Promoting Greater Transparency in Department of Defense Security Cooperation Reporting, RAND (RR-2039-OSD), 2017 (forthcoming)

David Thaler, Michael McNerney, Beth Grill, Jeffrey P. Marquis, Amanda Kadlec, From Patchwork to Framework: A Review of Title 10 Authorities for Security Cooperation, RAND (RR-2113), 2016

Christopher Paul, Michael Nixon, Heather Peterson, Beth Grill, Jessica Yeats, RAND Security Cooperation Prioritization and Matching Tool, RAND (RR-393/1), 2013

David Thaler, Beth Grill, Jefferson P. Marquis, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Stephanie Pezard, Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming and Capability Development , RAND (RR-2351-AF), 2016

Christopher Paul, Jennifer D.P. Moroney, Beth Grill, Colin P. Clarke, Lisa Saum-Manning, Heather Peterson, Brian Gord, What Works Best When Building Partner Capacity in Challenging Contexts?RAND (RR-937), 2015

Christopher Paul, Russell Glenn, Beth Grill, Megan Mckernan, Barbara Raymond, Matt Stafford, and Horacio Truijillo, "Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 31(11), 2008

Christopher Paul, Colin Clarke, Beth Grill, Molly Dunigan, Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies, RAND (RR-291/1), 2013

Alan Vick, Adam Grissom, William Rosenau, Beth Grill, Karl Mueller, Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era: The Strategic Importance of USAF Advisory and Assistance Missions., RAND (MG-509), 2006

Honors & Awards

Journal Article of the Year (2013) for "Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 30 Insurgencies" with Christopher Paul and Colin Clarke, Military Operations and Research Society (MORS)

Commentary

Australian and U.S. Military Health Professionals Can Help Address Pacific Island Needs
Australia and the United States can combine their military health capabilities to help improve the long-term health security of Pacific island countries. These partnerships should be carefully planned and focus on enduring engagement.
May 5, 2021 The Strategist

Publications

Report
Managing International Borders: Balancing Security with the Licit Flow of People and Goods
This Perspective builds on global best practices and lessons learned from other established border management solutions and proposes opportunities to strengthen security while improving the flow of travelers and goods.
May 9, 2018
Report
Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development
This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.
Apr 19, 2018
Report
Follow the Money: Promoting Greater Transparency in Department of Defense Security Cooperation Reporting
This report analyzes the obstacles that the Department of Defense (DoD) faces in tracking security cooperation spending and provides recommendations for streamlining DoD's reporting process to meet new requirements for transparency.
Sep 19, 2017
Journal Article
Moving Beyond Population-Centric Vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency
Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future.
Oct 31, 2016
Report
The Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DMHA): An Assessment of Roles and Missions
This report examines the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance's history, activities, and roles to determine how its missions can best be performed to achieve the Department of Defense's objectives in this domain.
May 16, 2016
Report
From Patchwork to Framework: A Review of Title 10 Authorities for Security Cooperation
This report develops a framework and options to streamline the patchwork of authorities in Public Law and Title 10 of the U.S. Code that the Department of Defense employs in the planning and execution of security cooperation with foreign partners.
Mar 2, 2016
Report
A Building Partner Capacity Assessment Framework: Tracking Inputs, Outputs, Outcomes, Disrupters, and Workarounds
This report presents a framework intended to help with planning for building partner capacity events, monitoring progress while the effort is in progress, and assessing results.
Aug 21, 2015
Report
What Works Best When Building Partner Capacity in Challenging Contexts?
This report explores what the United States can do in challenging capacity-building contexts to maximize prospects for success, focusing on potential challenges and workarounds and deriving recommendations for future engagements.
Aug 21, 2015
Tool
The RAND Security Cooperation Prioritization and Propensity Matching Tool
RAND research identified practices and factors associated with success in security cooperation. A related diagnostic tool can help defense planners identify mismatches between funding, priorities, and propensity for success with a given country.
Nov 6, 2013
Report
Counterinsurgency Scorecard: Afghanistan in Early 2013 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II
Previous RAND research on historical insurgencies found that a conflict's overall balance of good and bad factors and practices perfectly discriminated its outcome. A RAND study applied this scorecard approach to Afghanistan in early 2013.
Oct 7, 2013
Journal Article
Between Large-N and Small-N Analyses: Historical Comparison of Thirty Insurgency Case Studies
The authors study the 30 insurgencies occurring between 1978 and 2008 using four methods crossing the qualitative/quantitative divide.
Oct 1, 2013
Report
Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies
Building on a 2010 RAND study of the 30 insurgencies begun and completed between 1978 and 2008, this study added 41 new cases to the data set, allowing comparisons across all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II.
Sep 26, 2013
Report
Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies
This companion volume to Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies offers in-depth case studies of 41 insurgencies since World War II. Each case breaks the conflict into phases and examines the trajectory that led to the outcome.
Sep 26, 2013
Report
What Works Best When Building Partner Capacity and Under What Circumstances?
A RAND study collected and compared 20 years of data on 29 historical case studies to identify how the U.S. Department of Defense can increase the effectiveness of efforts to build partner security and military capacity.
Jan 28, 2013
Journal Article
Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 30 Insurgencies, 1978-2008
Useful recommendations for US engagement in and support for COIN operations.
2012
Report
How Successful Are U.S. Efforts to Build Capacity in Developing Countries? A Framework to Assess the Global Train and Equip "1206" Program
The Global Train and Equip
Sep 14, 2011
Journal Article
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Evidence of Effective Approaches to Counterinsurgency, 1978-2008
Good COIN practices tend to "run in packs" and the balance of selected good and bad practices predicts insurgency outcomes.
Jan 17, 2011
Report
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency
An examination of approaches to counterinsurgency from 30 recent resolved campaigns reveals that good COIN practices tend to ''run in packs'' and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict.
Jun 18, 2010
Report
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies
Narratives on the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, covering the period 1978 to 2008, and data on 76 factors hypothesized to be related to the success of counterinsurgency forces supplement analyses of historical and contemporary insurgencies.
Jun 18, 2010
Report
Developing an Assessment Framework for U.S. Air Force Building Partnerships Programs
Working with allies in a security cooperation context to build their defense capacity, acquire or maintain access to their territory for potential operations, and strengthen relationships with their air forces is a valuable U.S. Air Force activity.
Feb 2, 2010
Report
International Cooperation with Partner Air Forces
Some important U.S. goals include maintaining international cooperation with partner countries, devising programs to satisfy U.S. strategic imperatives for a region, and enhancing the security of partner countries.
Mar 20, 2009
Journal Article
Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest
This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.
2008
Research Brief
Can Publicly Available Information Be Used in Planning Terrorist Attacks?
This fact sheet describes a framework for assessing the availability of publicly available information for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure and the results of applying the framework in a red-team exercise.
Aug 1, 2007
Report
Freedom and Information: Assessing Publicly Available Data Regarding U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Security
Describes a framework to guide assessments of the availability of data regarding U.S. anti- and counterterrorism systems, countermeasures, and defenses for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure.
Jul 18, 2007
Research Brief
Building Partner Capacity Is the Key to a Successful Counterinsurgency Strategy
This research brief examines ways the U.S. Air Force can contribute to allies' conterinsurgency efforts by providing advice; education; and, when necessary, physical and technological assistance to partner-nation air forces.
Aug 31, 2006
Report
Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era: The Strategic Importance of USAF Advisory and Assistance Missions
History shows that an afflicted nation must itself defeat an insurgency politically and militarily, and the best way to help is to offer advice, training, and equipment.
Aug 16, 2006
Research Brief
Unweaving a Tangled Web: Local Trends and Regional Challenges in Allegheny County
Key findings:--The economies of Pittsburgh and other communities in Allegheny County depend on each other, especially from an employment perspective. --On average, only 13 percent of the residents work in the same town where they live. --For 114 muni...
Nov 25, 2005
Report
Measuring and Understanding Economic Interdependence in Allegheny County
A powerful descriptive analysis of the wealth flows in Allegheny County, this report provides timely and critical information regarding public policy issues affecting a region that includes the City of Pittsburgh.
Dec 13, 2004