Nidhi Kalra

California's Ambitious Decarbonization Plan Hasn't Been Future-Proofed

California has an ambitious blueprint to make the state carbon-neutral by 2045. But there's been no integrated stress test of the whole plan. The state needs and deserves a future-proofed, stress-tested plan that all Californians can trust to achieve its climate goals.

Defund Prisons, Not Police

The United States spends billions on prisons, jails, and juvenile detention facilities. New lows in incarceration rates present a chance to shift resources away from costly correctional facilities and toward education, job training, transportation, and other community services.

What Autonomous Vehicles Could Mean for American Workers

Autonomous vehicles are projected to hit American roads within the next few years. They promise safer transportation, greater mobility for millions of Americans, and other benefits. But they will also have enormous impacts on the workforce.

How California Is Trying to Keep Autonomous Vehicle Development on Track

California's Department of Motor Vehicles recently proposed new regulations governing the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles. Will this help retain the state's status as a testing and deployment ground for the technology, and will it make California safer?

Innovation in the Bay Area: Q&A with Nidhi Kalra

Nidhi Kalra discusses what Silicon Valley startups and policy researchers have in common, whether test-driving autonomous vehicles could really prove their safety, and more.

Driving to Safety: Autonomous Vehicle Questions, Answered

A recent RAND report found that test-driving autonomous vehicles is not a feasible way to determine when they will be safe enough for consumer use. This resulted in a lot of questions.

When Will We Know Self-Driving Cars Are Safe?

Will autonomous vehicles be safe before they are allowed on the road for consumer use? Maybe. And that might be the best that can be said.

Fatal Crash Shouldn't Kill Self-Driving Cars

The first known fatality in an autonomous vehicle occurred on May 7 and raises important questions. It does not, however, mean that self-driving cars are less safe than human drivers or that development of the technology should be stopped.

With Driverless Cars, How Safe Is Safe Enough?

Waiting for autonomous vehicles to operate perfectly misses opportunities to save lives by keeping far-from-perfect human drivers behind the wheel.

Ensuring Robust Water Management Strategies in Lima-Callão, Peru

Water resource agencies around the world are grappling with how to make smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability at a time of unprecedented water stress, growing demands, uncertain climate change, and limited budgets.

To Hit the Road, Driverless Cars Must Be Safe, Not Perfect

Once driverless cars are safer than the average human driver, they should be allowed to hit the road. Indeed, waiting for autonomous vehicles to be perfect would be its own safety concern because it would mean the needless perpetuation of the risks posed by human drivers.

Making Informed Investment Decisions in an Uncertain World

Changing how we make development decisions requires a cultural shift as much as it requires an analytical shift. Methodological innovations like Robust Decision Making can help. By motivating and equipping analysts to manage uncertainty, they can shape how we think about, discuss, and make decisions.

Research Brief

Growing Toward a Low-Carbon Future: Policy Implications of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Their Trade-Offs in California's Westlands Water District

The authors assessed the greenhouse gas emissions of crop production in California's Westlands Water District and the trade-offs of policies aimed at decarbonization. They provide policy insights and recommendations to local and state decisionmakers.

Report

Growing Toward a Low-Carbon Future: Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California's Westlands Water District

The authors assessed the greenhouse gas emissions of crop production in California's Westlands Water District and the trade-offs of policies aimed at decarbonization. They provide policy insights and recommendations to local and state decisionmakers.

Report

Equity Metrics for Climate Adaptation in the Electricity Sector

Social equity has become a key concern among public agencies. The authors developed an illustrative set of context-specific equity metrics that Southern California Edison could build on and incorporate into its ongoing work toward climate adaptation.

Research Brief

Resetting Recidivism Risk Prediction

A RAND research report proposes the novel reset principle to guide more-accurate recidivism risk prediction for criminal background checks. The research also demonstrates the viability of a risk-prediction model that satisfies the reset principle.

Commentary

How Different Sampling Methods Paint Vastly Different Pictures of Recidivism, and Why It Matters for Policy

In this paper, the authors argue that the recidivism statistics cited most often in debates about the collateral consequences of conviction overrepresent the behaviors of frequent recidivists and so are not appropriate evidence in those debates.

Report

Providing Another Chance: Resetting Recidivism Risk in Criminal Background Checks

The authors propose the reset principle that anchors assessments of recidivism risk at the time of a background check rather than the time of conviction, as current methods derived from the criminal justice context do.

Tool

Water Planning for the Uncertain Future: An Interactive Guide to the Use of Methods for Decisionmaking Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) for U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Water Resources Planning

Recent climatic shifts are likely to continue to affect water resources management in significant but uncertain ways. This tool provides information about decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods—specifically, Robust Decision Making.

Commentary

Identifying Systemic Bias in the Acquisition of Machine Learning Decision Aids for Law Enforcement Applications

This Perspective describes ways the U.S. Department of Homeland Security can identify and address bias in law enforcement systems that use machine learning and how to prevent such bias at various points in the process of acquiring such systems.

Journal Article

A Policy Review of Employers' Open Access to Conviction Records

In this review, we find that (a) US employers' use of conviction information is not clearly aligned with the risk of future criminal behavior or employer costs, and (b) using such information leads to hiring errors that pose costs to society.

Commentary

Decoding Data Science: The U.S. Coast Guard's Evolving Needs and Their Implications

This Perspective outlines the role that data science can play in decisionmaking processes and provides a selected set of key questions and sensitivities for the U.S. Coast Guard to consider in developing its future usage of this expanding field.

Report

Air Force Capability Development Planning: Analytical Methods to Support Investment Decisions

RAND Project AIR FORCE examines analytical methods for Air Force capability development planning under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Report

Decision Support Tool for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Levees Investment Strategy: Documentation and Use

This report describes the decision support tool and underlying methodology used to support the development of a levee investment strategy for the California Delta Stewardship Council.

Report

Measuring Automated Vehicle Safety: Forging a Framework

This report presents a framework for measuring safety in automated vehicles (AVs): how to define safety for AVs, how to measure safety for AVs, and how to communicate what is learned or understood about AVs.

Report

Rethinking Insurance and Liability in the Transformative Age of Autonomous Vehicles

The "Rethinking Insurance and Liability in the Transformative Age of Autonomous Vehicles" workshop examined the implications of autonomous vehicle technology for insurance and liability regimes. This publication summarizes key issues from the event.

Tool

Enemy of Good: Autonomous Vehicle Safety Scenario Explorer

How safe should highly automated vehicles (HAVs) be before they are allowed on the roads for consumer use? This tool lets users develop their own future scenarios and estimates the resulting fatalities against a future without AVs.

Report

The Enemy of Good: Estimating the Cost of Waiting for Nearly Perfect Automated Vehicles

RAND researchers use a model to explore how safe highly automated vehicles should be before they are allowed on the roads for consumer use.

Report

RAND Model of Automated Vehicle Safety (MAVS): Model Documentation

This report describes a simple model of how factors shaping the diffusion and performance of highly automated vehicles may interact and result in different safety outcomes over time.

Commentary

Autonomous Vehicles and Federal Safety Standards: An Exemption to the Rule?

In this Perspective, we examine changes being considered to the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard exemption process that are aimed at facilitating deployment of autonomous vehicles.

Journal Article

Advancing Automated and Connected Vehicles: Policy and Planning Strategies for State and Local Transportation Agencies

This report assesses policy and planning strategies at the state, regional, and local levels that could influence private-sector AV and CV choices to positively affect societal goals.

Report

Process and Outcome Evaluation of the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program

Presents the results of a process and outcome evaluation of the California Energy Commission's Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program, relying on quantitative and qualitative methods.

Testimony

Challenges and Approaches to Realizing Autonomous Vehicle Safety and Mobility Benefits

Testimony presented to the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies on May 18, 2017.

Report

Digital Resources for STEM Educators and Recommendations for Cyberlearning Initiatives: Results from the National Science Foundation Digital Library/Distributed Learning Program Evaluation

This evaluation of the National Science Digital Library/Distributed Learning (NSDL) program assessed the sustainability of NSDL resources, tools, and services over time and across the changing technology landscape.

Report

Evaluation of the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan and Recommendations for Improvement

RAND evaluated potential effects of uncertain projections of demand and climate change on the ability of the Jinan Municipal Water Resources Bureau to meet its long-term water resources goals for Shandong Province's capital city.

Testimony

Challenges and Approaches to Realizing Autonomous Vehicle Safety

Testimony presented to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Subcommittee on Digital Commerce and Consumer Protection on February 14, 2017.

Infographic

Next Stop, Neptune? Why We Can't Rely on Test-Driving Alone to Assess the Safety of Autonomous Vehicles

Fully autonomous vehicles would have to be test-driven hundreds of millions of miles to evaluate their safety and reliability -- an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to widespread consumer use.

Testimony

Shaping the Future of Autonomous Vehicles: How Policymakers Can Promote Safety, Mobility, and Efficiency in an Uncertain World

Testimony presented before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and UrbanDevelopment, and Related Agencies on November 16, 2016.

Report

Driving to Safety: How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

How safe are autonomous vehicles? The answer is crucial for developing sound policies to govern their deployment. This report evaluates whether it is practical to test-drive autonomous vehicles to assess their safety.

Report

Water Management, Partnerships, Rights, and Market Trends: An Overview for Army Installation Managers

This report assesses water management, partnerships, rights, and market trends and opportunities, and how Army installations can potentially use them to improve programs and investments in water and wastewater systems.

Report

Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers

Autonomous vehicle technology has the potential to significantly improve social welfare. This report addresses the numerous legislative, regulatory, and liability issues this technology will raise.

Journal Article

Robust Decision-Making in the Water Sector: A Strategy for Implementing Lima's Long-Term Water Resources Master Plan

This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility serving Lima, Peru, answer the question of long-term water reliability by drawing on state of the art methods for decision making under deep uncertainty.

Report

Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks: A Water Utility Framework

RAND researchers and collaborators present a comprehensive approach for water utilities to assess climate risks to their systems and evaluate adaptation strategies.

Research Brief

Autonomous Vehicle Technology: How to Best Realize Its Social Benefits

RAND researchers examined the technological advances in the field of autonomous vehicles, the benefits and risks of this technology, and the potential effects of various regulations and absence of same on the development of this technology.

Report

Key Trends That Will Shape Army Installations of Tomorrow

Assesses how future trends external to Army installations may affect the Army's ability to provide quality installation services and infrastructure.

Journal Article

Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh City

This study demonstrates how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies.

Research Brief

Making Good Decisions Without Predictions: Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning. But with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.

Journal Article

Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance

STREAM is a process that transportation agencies can use to identify, assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to help achieve long-term system performance objectives.

Report

Recommended Research Priorities for the Qatar Foundation's Environment and Energy Research Institute

The Qatar Foundation is establishing a national research institute to conduct energy, environment, and water research. This book recommends research priorities for the institute and reports on a survey of related research institutions in the region.

Report

Steps Toward a Formative Evaluation of NSDL

This report provides a preliminary assessment of the National Science Digital Library/Distributed Learning program and makes recommendations for the design of a more complete formative evaluation.

Report

A Big Apple for Educators: New York City's Experiment with Schoolwide Performance Bonuses: Final Evaluation Report

New York's Schoolwide Performance Bonus Program, whose broad objective was to improve student performance through school-based financial incentives, did not in fact do so, perhaps because it did not motivate change in educator behavior.

Research Brief

What New York City's Experiment with Schoolwide Performance Bonuses Tells Us About Pay for Performance

New York City's Schoolwide Performance Bonus Program did not improve student achievement at any grade level, perhaps in part because it provided no significant additional motivation beyond other accountability incentives.

Research Brief

Should Global Force Management Information Be Classified?

This research brief describes a method for determining whether information should be classified and applies the method to the Global Force Management Data Initiative.

Report

What Should Be Classified? A Framework with Application to the Global Force Management Data Initiative

Develops a framework for assessing classification decisions and uses it to conclude that classifying the Global Force Management Data Initiative provides little value (but still advises monitoring file contents).

Journal Article

Managing Climate Risks in Developing Countries with Robust Decision Making

The authors present the concept of robust decision making (RDM), which draws on already-existing knowledge of practitioners to choose actions that are viable in both the short- and long-term.

Journal Article

Liability and Regulation of Autonomous Vehicle Technologies

Autonomous vehicle technologies and advanced driver-assistance systems have the potential to improve transportation safety and efficiency.

Report

Effects of Student Displacement in Louisiana During the First Academic Year After the Hurricanes of 2005

In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita displaced more than one-fourth of Louisiana public school students. This article examines how these students fared in the first academic year following the storms.

Draft

Supplemental Material for: Effects of Student Displacement in Louisiana During the First Academic Year After the Hurricanes of 2005

The purpose of this document is to publish a complete tabulation of statistical model results reported in an article in the Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk.