Andrew Radin

@andrewmradin on Twitter

Political Scientist

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; BA in political science and mathematics, University of Chicago

One Page Bio

Overview

Andrew Radin is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include European security, NATO, and Russia’s foreign and security policy; state building and security sector reform; and peace operations. He is the author of Institution Building in Weak States: The Primacy of Local Politics, published by Georgetown University Press, which considers case studies from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Iraq, Timor Leste, and Ukraine. In addition to his publications from RAND, his work has appeared in Security Studies, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Washington Quarterly, and War on the Rocks, among other venues.

From December 2018 to December 2020, he was detailed from RAND to serve as a Country Director for Afghanistan in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. He was a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and the University of Southern California. He received a Ph.D. in political science from MIT and a B.A. in political science and mathematics from the University of Chicago. He previously taught as an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.

Research Focus

Commentary

Keeping Russians Informed About Ukraine Could Help End This War
Russia has taken increasingly aggressive actions to restrict access of information about the war in Ukraine. Ensuring that the Russian people know the truth about what their government is doing in Ukraine could bring this war to an end soon rather than later.
Mar 14, 2022 United Press International
Afghan Refugees Are Being Recruited to Join an Iranian Paramilitary
As Western policymakers consider how to deal with Afghan evacuees, including former members of the Afghan security forces, they might consider how to prevent adversaries such as Iran from recruiting Afghan refugees for dangerous and destabilizing operations. Greater attention to these risks may become increasingly important as refugee flows from Afghanistan continue.
Nov 23, 2021 The Hill
Reconsidering U.S. Decisionmaking Within NATO After the Fall of Kabul
With NATO, the United States often tries to have it all: U.S. leadership of the alliance and increased allied burden-sharing. But the recent experience in Afghanistan shows how the form U.S. leadership takes can frustrate allies. Prioritizing allied preferences would help to preserve alliance unity and maybe even strengthen burden-sharing.
Oct 25, 2021 War on the Rocks
Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers
The sudden end to America's longest war came as the Taliban rolled into Kabul and the government collapsed. RAND researchers share their thoughts on how to help displaced Afghans, whether the country could again become a safe haven for terrorists, and the geopolitical implications of the collapse.
Aug 17, 2021
Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe
They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one.
Feb 26, 2019 War on the Rocks
How NATO Could Accidentally Trigger a War with Russia
An increased NATO presence in the Baltics could lead Russia to feel a motivation for an invasion. U.S. and NATO deployments in the region should avoid this risk by taking seriously Russian beliefs about NATO capabilities in planning future deployments, and by pursuing transparency and negotiation in future deployments in the Baltic region.
Nov 13, 2017 The National Interest
Russia in Action, Short of War
The West needs to work more quickly and coordinate better to offset Russia's capabilities, aggressiveness, and success. Responding to Russia's hostile influence involves predicting Russia's targets, identifying the tools it's likely to use, and playing the long game rather than focusing on near-term events.
May 9, 2017 U.S. News & World Report
What Ukraine Urgently Needs to Defend Itself
Many think that the United States should do more to help Ukraine defend itself. Analysis points to the potential of U.S. support for fundamental reform of Ukraine's security sector.
Oct 16, 2016 Newsweek

Publications

Report
China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States
Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship. In this report, the authors seek to understand the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States and implications for future U.S. policy.
Oct 12, 2021
Commercial Book
Institution Building in Weak States: The Primacy of Local Politics
The international community‘s approach to building state institutions needs its own reform. This innovative book proposes a new strategy, rooted in a rigorous analysis of recent missions.
Jun 26, 2020
Report
Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses
This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, recent events that illustrate attempts at Russian subversion, and ways to improve the response to subversion attempts.
Feb 18, 2020
Report
Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition
Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's use of hostile measures is critical to containing their consequences for both target countries and Western alliances and in both the gray zone short of war and conventional warfare.
Jan 7, 2020
Report
Africa's Role in Nation-Building: An Examination of African-Led Peace Operations
What have the peacekeeping missions undertaken by African institutions in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Comoros, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin achieved?
Jun 28, 2019
Research Brief
How African Institutions Help Keep the Peace
African-led missions are often the peacekeepers of last resort, taking on tasks rejected by others. Two of the six African operations examined helped set a relatively peaceful trajectory. Three of the missions contributed to improving security.
Jun 28, 2019
Report
The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.
Jun 18, 2019
Research Brief
What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?
RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.
Jun 18, 2019
Research Brief
The Growing Need to Focus on Modern Political Warfare
RAND researchers analyzed how political warfare is practiced today and identified ways that the U.S. government, its allies, and its partners can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
May 31, 2019
Report
Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance
The authors of this report examine how the unconventional defense strategies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania can deter and counteract Russian hybrid and military attacks, and assesses the roles of enabling technologies and international support.
Apr 15, 2019
Report
Russia's Hostile Measures in Europe: Understanding the Threat
This report examines current Russian hostile measures in Europe and forecasts how Russia might threaten Europe using these measures over the next few years.
Jan 28, 2019
Report
Countering Russian Social Media Influence
The Russian government's campaigns of disinformation -- political, social, religious, or otherwise -- have found a comfortable home on social media. This report presents strategies to counter Russian social media influence.
Nov 1, 2018
Report
Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe
Researchers analyzed Russian social media data and conducted interviews with regional and security experts to understand the critical ingredients to countering Russia's propaganda campaign against former Soviet states.
Apr 12, 2018
Report
Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses
Analyzes how political warfare is practiced today and identifies the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
Apr 5, 2018
Report
Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order
As part of a larger study on the future of the post-World War II liberal international order, RAND researchers analyze the health of the existing order and offer implications for future U.S. policy.
Sep 5, 2017
Report
Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order
This report examines options for future U.S. policies regarding international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms.
Aug 28, 2017
Report
Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia
This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability.
Jul 7, 2017
Report
Russian Views of the International Order
In this report, RAND researchers analyze Russian views of the current international order, identify Russia's core interests, and highlight the underlying choices for U.S. policy going forward.
May 18, 2017
Report
Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine
This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February-March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February to late May 2014).
May 9, 2017
Report
European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis
This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, how European states have responded to Russia's behavior, and how European officials see the future of Russo-European relations.
Apr 13, 2017
Report
Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics: Threats and Potential Responses
This report considers the various possible forms of hybrid aggression in the Baltics and concludes that the major vulnerability of the Baltics is to conventional aggression.
Feb 23, 2017
Report
Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures
Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, Europe must reassess the regional security environment. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation.
Jan 18, 2017
Report
Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series
This conference summary reflects key insights from a January 2016 workshop discussion that informed the next stages of a project titled "Building a Sustainable International Order."
Oct 19, 2016
Report
Understanding the Current International Order
RAND researchers examine the international order in effect since World War II, including the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior, the engines that drive states to participate, and the U.S. approach to the order since 1945.
Oct 19, 2016
Report
Security Sector Reform in Ukraine
The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report provides an overview of recommendations for the reform of Ukraine's security and defense institutions.
Oct 5, 2016
Journal Article
The Misunderstood Lessons of Bosnia for Syria
The 1992 to 1995 war in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been highly influential as an analogy for understanding intervention in Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, and most recently in Syria.
Mar 3, 2015
Report
Europe's Role in Nation-Building: From the Balkans to the Congo
This volume compares and contrasts European experiences in nation-building with those of the U.S. and the UN based on six case studies of European-led nation-building missions in Albania, Sierra Leone, Macedonia, Côte d'Ivoire, the Congo, and Bosnia.
Jun 5, 2008