Andrew Radin

Why the United States Still Needs Ground Forces in Europe

The bulked-up U.S. presence in Europe will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

How Should the U.S. Military Share Secrets?

For security cooperation to work, allies may need access to details of U.S. military plans and activities. But does the need for a clearly defined U.S. advantage prevent sharing information that may be broadly in the U.S. interest? Who should evaluate this advantage, and at what level?

Keeping Russians Informed About Ukraine Could Help End This War

Russia has taken increasingly aggressive actions to restrict access of information about the war in Ukraine. Ensuring that the Russian people know the truth about what their government is doing in Ukraine could bring this war to an end soon rather than later.

Afghan Refugees Are Being Recruited to Join an Iranian Paramilitary

As Western policymakers consider how to deal with Afghan evacuees, including former members of the Afghan security forces, they might consider how to prevent adversaries such as Iran from recruiting Afghan refugees for dangerous and destabilizing operations. Greater attention to these risks may become increasingly important as refugee flows from Afghanistan continue.

Reconsidering U.S. Decisionmaking Within NATO After the Fall of Kabul

With NATO, the United States often tries to have it all: U.S. leadership of the alliance and increased allied burden-sharing. But the recent experience in Afghanistan shows how the form U.S. leadership takes can frustrate allies. Prioritizing allied preferences would help to preserve alliance unity and maybe even strengthen burden-sharing.

Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers

The sudden end to America's longest war came as the Taliban rolled into Kabul and the government collapsed. RAND researchers share their thoughts on how to help displaced Afghans, whether the country could again become a safe haven for terrorists, and the geopolitical implications of the collapse.

Russia's Soft Strategy to Hostile Measures in Europe

They've been called political warfare, measures short of war, gray zone warfare, and a host of other terms. Russia has used a wide range of hostile measures to expand its influence and undermine governments across the European continent. These tactics should be appreciated for what they are: part of a larger, coherent Russian effort, but ultimately not an insurmountable one.

How NATO Could Accidentally Trigger a War with Russia

An increased NATO presence in the Baltics could lead Russia to feel a motivation for an invasion. U.S. and NATO deployments in the region should avoid this risk by taking seriously Russian beliefs about NATO capabilities in planning future deployments, and by pursuing transparency and negotiation in future deployments in the Baltic region.

Russia in Action, Short of War

The West needs to work more quickly and coordinate better to offset Russia's capabilities, aggressiveness, and success. Responding to Russia's hostile influence involves predicting Russia's targets, identifying the tools it's likely to use, and playing the long game rather than focusing on near-term events.

What Ukraine Urgently Needs to Defend Itself

Many think that the United States should do more to help Ukraine defend itself. Analysis points to the potential of U.S. support for fundamental reform of Ukraine's security sector.

Report

Deterring Russia and Iran: Improving Effectiveness and Finding Efficiencies

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies, RAND researchers assess the impact of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation on deterrence in Europe and the Middle East.

Commentary

Engage, Isolate, or Oppose: American Policy Toward the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

The Taliban's seizure of control of Afghanistan has led to a humanitarian crisis. The authors explore three U.S. policy options: to engage with the Taliban, to isolate the regime, or to oppose the Taliban by seeking to remove them from power.

Report

China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States

Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship. In this report, the authors seek to understand the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States and implications for future U.S. policy.

Commercial Book

Institution Building in Weak States: The Primacy of Local Politics

The international community‘s approach to building state institutions needs its own reform. This innovative book proposes a new strategy, rooted in a rigorous analysis of recent missions.

Commentary

Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses

This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, recent events that illustrate attempts at Russian subversion, and ways to improve the response to subversion attempts.

Report

Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition

Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's use of hostile measures is critical to containing their consequences for both target countries and Western alliances and in both the gray zone short of war and conventional warfare.

Report

Africa's Role in Nation-Building: An Examination of African-Led Peace Operations

What have the peacekeeping missions undertaken by African institutions in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Comoros, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin achieved?

Research Brief

How African Institutions Help Keep the Peace

African-led missions are often the peacekeepers of last resort, taking on tasks rejected by others. Two of the six African operations examined helped set a relatively peaceful trajectory. Three of the missions contributed to improving security.

Report

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.

Research Brief

What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?

RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.

Research Brief

The Growing Need to Focus on Modern Political Warfare

RAND researchers analyzed how political warfare is practiced today and identified ways that the U.S. government, its allies, and its partners can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.

Report

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance

The authors of this report examine how the unconventional defense strategies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania can deter and counteract Russian hybrid and military attacks, and assesses the roles of enabling technologies and international support.

Report

Russia's Hostile Measures in Europe: Understanding the Threat

This report examines current Russian hostile measures in Europe and forecasts how Russia might threaten Europe using these measures over the next few years.

Report

Countering Russian Social Media Influence

The Russian government's campaigns of disinformation -- political, social, religious, or otherwise -- have found a comfortable home on social media. This report presents strategies to counter Russian social media influence.

Report

Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe

Researchers analyzed Russian social media data and conducted interviews with regional and security experts to understand the critical ingredients to countering Russia's propaganda campaign against former Soviet states.

Report

Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses

Analyzes how political warfare is practiced today and identifies the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.

Report

Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order

As part of a larger study on the future of the post-World War II liberal international order, RAND researchers analyze the health of the existing order and offer implications for future U.S. policy.

Report

Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order

This report examines options for future U.S. policies regarding international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms.

Commentary

Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia

This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability.

Report

Russian Views of the International Order

In this report, RAND researchers analyze Russian views of the current international order, identify Russia's core interests, and highlight the underlying choices for U.S. policy going forward.

Report

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February-March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February to late May 2014).

Report

European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis

This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, how European states have responded to Russia's behavior, and how European officials see the future of Russo-European relations.

Report

Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics: Threats and Potential Responses

This report considers the various possible forms of hybrid aggression in the Baltics and concludes that the major vulnerability of the Baltics is to conventional aggression.

Report

Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures

Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, Europe must reassess the regional security environment. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation.

Report

Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series

This conference summary reflects key insights from a January 2016 workshop discussion that informed the next stages of a project titled "Building a Sustainable International Order."

Report

Understanding the Current International Order

RAND researchers examine the international order in effect since World War II, including the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior, the engines that drive states to participate, and the U.S. approach to the order since 1945.

Report

Security Sector Reform in Ukraine

The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report provides an overview of recommendations for the reform of Ukraine's security and defense institutions.

Journal Article

The Misunderstood Lessons of Bosnia for Syria

The 1992 to 1995 war in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been highly influential as an analogy for understanding intervention in Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, and most recently in Syria.

Report

Europe's Role in Nation-Building: From the Balkans to the Congo

This volume compares and contrasts European experiences in nation-building with those of the U.S. and the UN based on six case studies of European-led nation-building missions in Albania, Sierra Leone, Macedonia, Côte d'Ivoire, the Congo, and Bosnia.