Studies in Probabilistic Information Processing

Published in: IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, v. HFE-7, no. 1, Mar. 1966, p. 49-63

Posted on RAND.org on January 01, 1966

by Richard J. Kaplan, J. R. Newman

This paper outlines a theory of Probabilistic Information Processing and describes three experimental studies testing that theory. The theory is based on certain principles of Bayesian statistical decision theory and is designed as an aid to human diagnostic decision-making. The experiments were concerned with certain types of military diagnostic decisions. In general, the experimental results support the theory. The implications of the theory for practical applications are discussed and suggestions are made for future research.

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