Examining Trends in the Food-Energy-Water Security Nexus and Its Relationships with Human Development, Population Growth, and Conflict

Abundant and accessible food, energy, and water are essential to the functioning of human societies and individual health and happiness. However, growing populations, intensifying climate change, and violent instability undermine resource security. We used data from the recently updated Pardee RAND Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Index and the INFORM risk model to assess global and regional trends in resource security and relationships with the Human Development Index (HDI), internal conflict risk, and population growth. Our analysis finds that resource security has modestly improved with an average global FEW Index improvement of 2.61%, but this figure masks significant regional disparities, with several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia regressing in terms of food and water security. We observe continued high correlations between HDI and the FEW Index (0.8664) and also find the FEW Index to be highly correlated with national income per capita (0.6547). We also find that at a global level, there is a significant negative association between trends in the FEW Index and population growth (-0.4724) during the study period, suggesting that a growing proportion of the global population is experiencing resource insecurity. Finally, our analysis suggests that several resource-insecure countries are also conflict-prone and these nations tended to do worse over the study period than similarly resource-insecure states that were internally stable.