EXPEDITE: EXpert-system based PrEdictions of Demand for Internal Transport in Europe

In Europe, many transport models are available at the national and regional level. Furthermore, there are models at the European scale. However, these are unusually network-based models with considerable run times. Moreover, these large European models can only provide a limited number of segmentations of the population and policy sensitivities, especially for short distance transport. Therefore, there is a need for a model with the following characteristics: the model is fast and easy to use, so that it can be run for many policies and packages; the model distinguishes between many different population segments, to that differences in behavior can be incorporated, as well as differences in how policy measures affect the segments; the model focuses on representing transport over everyday distances. In the EXPEDITE project, carried out for the European Commission, such a model was developed and applied in forecasting and policy simulation for passenger and freight transport. The EXPEDITE meta-model for passenger transport integrates results from the five discrete choice national model systems and the SCENES European model. For freight, outcomes from runs with two European transport models and four national models are used. It has been applied for a Reference Forecast for 2020 and many policy measures focusing on the impact on the modal split in passenger and freight transport.