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In Europe, many transport models are available at the national and regional level. Furthermore, there are models at the European scale. However, these are unusually network-based models with considerable run times. Moreover, these large European models can only provide a limited number of segmentations of the population and policy sensitivities, especially for short distance transport. Therefore, there is a need for a model with the following characteristics: the model is fast and easy to use, so that it can be run for many policies and packages; the model distinguishes between many different population segments, to that differences in behavior can be incorporated, as well as differences in how policy measures affect the segments; the model focuses on representing transport over everyday distances. In the EXPEDITE project, carried out for the European Commission, such a model was developed and applied in forecasting and policy simulation for passenger and freight transport. The EXPEDITE meta-model for passenger transport integrates results from the five discrete choice national model systems and the SCENES European model. For freight, outcomes from runs with two European transport models and four national models are used. It has been applied for a Reference Forecast for 2020 and many policy measures focusing on the impact on the modal split in passenger and freight transport.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction: Objectives of the Project

  • Chapter Two

    Overview of the EXPEDITE Approach

  • Chapter Three

    The Reference Scenario for 2020 and the Policies

  • Chapter Four

    Scoring Freight Policies: Evaluation of Aspects Not Modelled in the EXPEDITE Meta-Model

  • Chapter Five

    Scoring Passenger Transport Policies: Evaluation of Aspects Not Modelled in the EXPEDITE Meta-Model

  • Chapter Six

    Forecasting Results with the SCENES Model

  • Chapter Seven

    Forecasting Results with the Freight Meta-Model

  • Chapter Eight

    Forecasting Results for Shorter Distance Travel from the Meta-Model for Passengers

  • Chapter Nine

    Combining Shorter Distance Results from the Meta-Model with Long Distance Results from SCENES for Passengers

  • Chapter Ten

    Results of Policy Runs for Freight; Sensitive and Insensitive Segments; Policy Bundles

  • Chapter Eleven

    Results of Policy Runs for Passengers; Sensitive and Insensitive Segments; Policy Bundles

  • Chapter Twelve

    Summary and Conclusions

Research conducted by

This report was prepared for the European Commission Directorate-General for Energy & Transport by the EXPEDITE Consortium in association with RAND Europe.

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