News Release
Conflict in Yemen Fueled by Tribalism, Religious Conflicts
May 3, 2010
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For nearly six years, the government of Yemen has conducted military operations north of the capital against groups of its citizens known as “Huthis.” In spite of using all means at its disposal, the government has been unable to subdue the Huthi movement. Along with southern discontent and al-Qa'ida-inspired terrorism, the Huthi conflict presents an enduring threat to the stability of Yemen and the regime of its president. This book presents an in-depth look at the conflict in all its sociocultural, political, and military aspects. Basing their research on a wide variety of sources, both Western and non-Western, the authors provide a history of the Huthi movement and its origins in the Zaydi branch of Islam. They discuss the various stages of the conflict in detail and map out its possible future trajectories. In spite of a recent ceasefire, the 2009-2010 round of fighting, featuring Saudi involvement and Iranian rhetorical condemnation of Saudi-Yemeni actions, points to the conflict becoming transnational and increasingly sectarian. These developments run contrary to the interests of the United States and its friends in the region, as they seek to combat al-Qa'ida-related threats and build Yemeni capacity.
Part I
The Context of Regime-Periphery Relations in Northern Yemen
Chapter One
Sa‘da in the North Yemeni Context
Chapter Two
The Sociocultural Ecology of the Huthi Conflict: Tribalism and Religion
Part II
From Tension to Conflict: Social Change and Huthi Emergence, 1980s–2004
Chapter Three
Run-Up to the Regime-Huthi Conflict, 1980s–2001
Chapter Four
From Tension to Confrontation: Triggers of Conflict, 2001–2004
Part III
The Six Sa‘da Wars
Chapter Five
From Phases to Rolling Conflict: Time Line, Geography, and Magnitude of Huthi-GoY Fighting
Chapter Six
GoY Operations: Goals and Methods
Chapter Seven
The Huthis as Combatants
Chapter Eight
Conflict Prolongers: The Environmental, Human, and Economic Consequences of Huthi-GoY Fighting
Appendix A
Population Characteristics of Sa‘da Governorate
Appendix B
Zaydism: Overview and Comparison to Other Versions of Shi‘ism
Appendix C
Major Huthist Ideological Tracts
Appendix D
Important Personalities in the Huthi Conflict
Appendix E
Conflict Magnitude
Appendix F
Conflict Ceasefire Conditions
Appendix G
Fifty-Five Huthi “Leaders” Wanted by the GoY, August 2009
Appendix H
Sources and Challenges in Understanding the Huthi Conflict
The research described in this report was prepared for the Defense Intelligence Agency. The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
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