Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat

Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the question of whether to install countermeasure systems to protect commercial airliners against shoulder-fired missiles has been vigorously debated among decisionmakers in the United States and abroad. This paper examines the capabilities and costs of onboard technologies to divert an attacking missile. Given the significant uncertainties in the cost of countermeasures and their effectiveness in reducing the overall vulnerability to catastrophic airliner damage, a decision to install them should be postponed, and concurrent development efforts focused on reducing these uncertainties should proceed as rapidly as possible. The current research, development, test, and evaluation activities are a prudent step toward reducing the significant cost uncertainties involved and minimizing the delay of program implementation once a go-ahead decision is reached. Any federal policy to protect against shoulder-fired missiles should not be restricted to countermeasures development but should pursue a multilayered approach-including examining various technologies, working with other governments to slow the proliferation of missile technology, and integrating countermeasures into the overall aviation safety, security, and law enforcement system.