Cover: Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study

Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study

Published 1964

by Theodore J. Gordon, Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 3.2 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Description of an experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a time period as far as 50 years into the future. The Delphi technique is used in soliciting the opinions of experts in six areas: scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems. Possible objections to the approach are also discussed.

This report is part of the RAND paper series. The paper was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.