The Effectiveness of Population Policies: Alternative Methods of Statistical Inference.

T. P. Schultz

Expert InsightsPublished 1971

An evaluation of methods used to infer how activities of a family-planning program influence birth rates. Using data from Taiwan, two models, a simultaneous-equations model and an age-aggregated linear-recursive model, are estimated by means of various techniques, including ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares. Results suggest that when appropriate estimation techniques are used, both models imply that the family-planning program has had a marked effect on Taiwan's birth rate. But it is not clear that the number of IUDs successfully inserted (currently the accepted indicator of program accomplishment) is a satisfactory indicator of the program's ultimate effect on birth rates. The choice of techniques to estimate the parameters of a model, more than the choice of model per se, is crucial to the meaningfulness of the analysis for policymaking. Specifically, simultaneous-equations techniques are needed for a better understanding of the effects of population policy on reproductive behavior. 48 pp. Ref.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Schultz, T. P., The Effectiveness of Population Policies: Alternative Methods of Statistical Inference. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1971. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4663.html.
BibTeX RIS

This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.