In this paper the authors show how the forces shaping enlisted supply in the 1980s will affect the services' abilities to attract and retain the numbers and types of individuals they want. They give special attention to the Army because its past recruiting problems have sparked greatest concern. For both the Department of Defense (all services together) and the Army, they present forecasts of high-quality male enlistments, of first- and second-term retention rates, and of the enlisted force structure. They also examine some alternative policy options that could be used if the predicted enlistment levels, retention rates, and force structures deviate from those desired. Finally, they indicate areas in which further analysis would be useful.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.