The Future Course of International Terrorism

by Brian Michael Jenkins

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This paper was originally presented at the International Conference on Current Trends in World Terrorism, Tel Aviv, Israel, July 1-4, 1985. It considers the forms terrorism is likely to take in the near future, the levels of violence terrorists are likely to use, and possible changes in terrorist tactics and their choice of targets. It also considers the future role of terrorism in armed conflict, and probable developments in security measures. The author concludes that terrorism will surely persist and is likely to increase; that large-scale incidents will become more common but will not involve the use of high technology or tools of mass destruction; that terrorist tactics, targets, and weapons will be much the same as they have been; that governments will continue to exploit terrorism; and that terrorists will force governments and corporations to divert more resources toward combatting them.

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