Future Trends in International Terrorism

Brian Michael Jenkins

Expert InsightsPublished 1985

This paper surveys likely future trends in international terrorism, considering such issues as the probability that terrorism will persist, what its potential causes will be, whether it will increase in volume and violence, and whether terrorists will change their tactics, targets, and weapons. The author concludes that terrorism will persist and increase, but does not foresee major changes in terrorist tactics or targets. Terrorist attacks will become more violent and indiscriminate, but terrorists are unlikely to threaten mass destruction. He warns that terrorism will become institutionalized as a mode of armed conflict for some, and most unfortunately, will become an accepted fact of contemporary life and therefore somehow "tolerable."

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 1985
  • Pages: 30
  • Document Number: P-7176

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Jenkins, Brian Michael, Future Trends in International Terrorism. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1985. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P7176.html.
BibTeX RIS

This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.