Future Trends in International Terrorism

by Brian Michael Jenkins


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This paper surveys likely future trends in international terrorism, considering such issues as the probability that terrorism will persist, what its potential causes will be, whether it will increase in volume and violence, and whether terrorists will change their tactics, targets, and weapons. The author concludes that terrorism will persist and increase, but does not foresee major changes in terrorist tactics or targets. Terrorist attacks will become more violent and indiscriminate, but terrorists are unlikely to threaten mass destruction. He warns that terrorism will become institutionalized as a mode of armed conflict for some, and most unfortunately, will become an accepted fact of contemporary life and therefore somehow "tolerable."

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