This paper describes threats to allied security that may persist at least through the 1990s. It emphasizes that currently fashionable talk about a new "European pillar" to the alliance will not help meet these challenges. Two types of threats persist in the East--the residual threat posed by the Soviet Union and, more important, the possibility that political and economic reform will fail in the newly liberated nations of Central and Eastern Europe. Threats from the Maghreb, the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf regions include terrorism, subversion of or aggression against pro-Western regimes, immigration pressures, blackmail based on oil dependence, or threats to use weapons of mass destruction. Finally, the allies' long-term strategy must not overlook global threats--e.g., the spread of weapons of mass destruction, access to critical raw materials, terrorism, environmental deterioration, unfair trade practices, and expanding populations--which can only be met via effective cooperation. (Presented at a conference on the future of NATO, sponsored by the Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House), May 11-12, 1991.)
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.