Afghanistan in the Era of Fentanyl

Considering Potential Economic and Political Impacts of a Collapse in Demand for Afghanistan's Opiates

by Victoria A. Greenfield, Bryce Pardo, Jirka Taylor

Full Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.3 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of illegal opium poppy and is a key source for heroin markets across Europe and Asia. For decades, illegal opiates have helped sustain farmers and workers in rural Afghanistan while funding nonstate actors and insurgent groups. Although many policymakers have sought to end this illegal production, few policy analysts have considered the broad impacts of a sudden, lasting end for Afghanistan. Given the rise and dominance of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids as they displace heroin in major drug markets in the Americas, the authors assess what might happen to Afghanistan if demand for its opiates dropped off sharply and permanently. A rapid collapse in the opiate market in Afghanistan could have devastating effects on rural populations and be disruptive to other sectors and actors in the economy. A more gradual decline in demand for Afghan opiates could ease the transition by giving Afghan households and the economy more time to adjust, but it might still result in lower living standards in an already-poor country and add to migratory pressures. The authors discuss how a collapse of the market for Afghan opiates could unfold and what role the international community may need to play should it occur. The loss of demand for Afghan opiates could have significant impacts on economic and political conditions, depending largely on the pace of change.

Research conducted by

Funding for this project was provided by the generous contributions of the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security Advisory Board. This research was conducted within the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security, a center within International Programs at the RAND Corporation.

This publication is part of the RAND Corporation Perspective series. RAND Perspectives present expert insights on timely policy issues. All RAND Perspectives undergo peer review to ensure high standards for quality and objectivity.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.