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Illegal Drug Trade

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RAND has studied the impact of policy measures on the problem of illicit drugs; offered recommendations on supply-reduction efforts; and considered the possible effects of marijuana legalization or decriminalization on drug trafficking revenues and on drug-related violence.

Q&A
A New Approach to Fighting Synthetic Opioids: Q&A with David Luckey and Jayme Fuglesten
The opioid crisis isn't just about drug policy or law. It involves national security, homeland security, intelligence, diplomacy, supply chain issues, and cryptocurrency. Drawing on RAND's expertise across all those areas, the Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking delivered a plan, a call to action about what it's going to take to save lives.
Apr 26, 2022
Commentary
Fentanyl Makes an Already Dangerous Drug Market Deadlier Than Ever
Failure to recognize and respond to how rapidly illegal drug markets have changed with the arrival of illegally manufactured synthetic opioids will continue to put many Americans at risk of exposure to fentanyl, endangering the lives of hundreds of thousands more for years to come.
May 2, 2022

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Commentary
Should Mexico's Drug Cartels Be Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations?
While the outcry over the kidnapping and murder of U.S. citizens by members of the Gulf Cartel in Mexico is understandable, stridency should not preclude strategic assessment. America's problem with drug trafficking is not the lack of statutes, but the magnitude of the problem.
Mar 22, 2023
Project
Opioids Uncharted: Mapping America's Opioid Crisis
A RAND initiative to map the underexplored consequences of America's opioid crisis—and discover big-picture solutions.
Mar 21, 2023
Report
Inzichten in de effectiviteit van preventieve instrumenten in de strijd tegen georganiseerde criminaliteit: [Insights into the effectiveness of preventive instruments tackling organised crime]
This study responds to a call from the Dutch Research and Documentation Centre to gather insights into the effectiveness of preventative instruments in the field of organised crime, drawing on a review of the literature and expert interviews.
Jan 31, 2023
Multimedia
What Policy Changes Could Help Save Lives from Illicit Synthetic Opioids Overdose?
In this recording of a July 2022 virtual event, experts discuss findings from the final report by the Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking, and recommendations to reduce the number of lives lost to illicit synthetic opioids.
Aug 18, 2022
Journal Article
How Much Illegally Manufactured Fentanyl Could the U.S. Be Consuming?
This article provides guidance through two thought experiments that provide a hypothetical upper bound on U.S. consumption of fentanyl.
Jul 28, 2022
Testimony
Giving Drug Policy Decisionmakers the Data They Need
Better data and analysis can help improve federal drug policy responses. With the appropriate funding, the United States could enhance its drug data infrastructure and ensure that drug policy is based on high-quality information.
Jun 24, 2022
Article
Synthetic Opioids Are an Everything Problem
Illegally manufactured synthetic opioids have accelerated the opioid crisis. These drugs have created new challenges across a wide range of policy areas. That's why this crisis warrants new strategies and a comprehensive response.
Jun 9, 2022
Commentary
A Greater Focus On Harm Reduction Will Save Lives
For decades, elected officials brushed off harm reduction as a viable option for reducing the harms of drug use over concerns of enabling drug consumption. But now, these strategies are front and center, spoken aloud, from the largest podium in the land, and during prime time. What caused this historic about-face?
Apr 29, 2022
Report
An Overview of the Effectiveness of U.S. Counternarcotics Efforts in Colombia, 2000–Present, and Recommendations for the Future
The authors of this report examine the period in Colombia from 2000 to 2020 to assess the effectiveness of U.S. counternarcotics and security efforts: eradication of coca, interdiction of cocaine, security and rule of law, and development.
Feb 11, 2022
Content
Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking
The Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking was charged with examining aspects of the synthetic opioid threat to the United States—specifically, with developing a consensus on a strategic approach to combating the illegal flow of synthetic opioids into the United States.
Feb 7, 2022
Commentary
Malaria Vaccine May Not Eliminate Need to Combat Counterfeit Medicines
The newly announced malaria vaccine could be a critical tool to combat the tremendous socioeconomic burden malaria causes. But global achievements in reducing malaria cases and deaths in the past decades may be in danger of significant reversal if the problem of counterfeiting continues.
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Afghanistan in the Era of Fentanyl
Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are displacing heroin in some major drug markets. What might happen to Afghanistan—the world's largest producer of illegal opium poppy—if demand for its opiates dropped off sharply and permanently?
Jul 26, 2021
Journal Article
Study to Identify an Approach to Measure the Illicit Market for Tobacco Products: Final Report
This study is intended to support efforts to better understand the scope and scale of the illicit tobacco market.
May 11, 2021
Commentary
Australia Contained COVID-19 Early On. Can It Do the Same with Synthetic Opioids?
Australia is at risk of a fentanyl problem, but it is better prepared than North America. If the country can make the same kind of concerted effort it did to keep COVID-19 at bay, that could save thousands of lives.
Apr 30, 2021
Journal Article
Mapping the Risk of Serious and Organised Crime Infiltrating Legitimate Businesses: Final Report
This report examines the infiltration of organized crime into legitimate European businesses, and its involvement in various illegal markets, including drugs and human trafficking.
Mar 23, 2021
Journal Article
Mapping the Risk of Serious and Organised Crime Infiltrating Legitimate Businesses: Technical Annexes
This annex provides a description of the cross-cutting data-collection activities that were undertaken to address the research questions and the major outputs of the study.
Mar 23, 2021
Journal Article
Illicit Synthetic Opioid Consumption in Asia and the Pacific: Assessing the Risks of a Potential Outbreak
While many illegally manufactured potent synthetic opioids (IMPSO) are produced in Asia, there is little evidence they have entered markets there. We consider the susceptibility to IMPSO's encroachment in markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
Jan 26, 2021
Journal Article
Lessons from Maritime Narcotics Interdiction: Interdiction in the Maritime Source, Transit, and Arrival Zones of the Western Hemisphere
Sharing information with foreign partners and regional, local, and private actors has been proven to be absolutely critical to success in combating any transnational threat and preventing illegal activities from threatening the homeland and allies.
Nov 5, 2020
Essay
Fentanyl: The Most Dangerous Illegal Drug in America
America's fentanyl crisis is unlike previous drug epidemics and is likely to get worse. Deaths involving fentanyl and other synthetic opioids have surged from around 3,000 in 2013 to more than 30,000 in 2018. Solving the problem requires innovative approaches and unprecedented resources.
Jan 13, 2020
Commentary
What Will the Opioid Crisis Look Like in Five Years?
Evidence suggests that once a synthetic opioid like fentanyl becomes dominant in a drug market, it stays that way. With that in mind, the United States should prepare for these drugs as a lasting phenomenon.
Nov 18, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Illegal Drug Trade

Topic Synonyms:
Drug Trafficking

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Victoria A. Greenfield

Senior Economist

Victoria Greenfield (she/her) is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation, and faculty affiliate with the Department of Criminology, Law and Society, George Mason University. At RAND, she specializes in national security and international social and economic issues, including transnational…
Mafalda Pardal

Research Leader and European lead for the RAND Drug Policy Research Center

Mafalda Pardal is a research leader at RAND Europe, working in the area of home affairs and social policy. Her research interests include the study of illicit markets, cannabis regulation and drug policy. She is also the European lead for the RAND Drug Policy Research Center.

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