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An examination of the present and future usefulness of systems analysis as an approach to policy planning, particularly in matters of national security. The study considers the basic concepts of systems analysis, including the problem of selecting operationally useful objectives, measures of their attainment, and criteria; the treatment of uncertainty; the place and function of technological considerations in planning or evaluating advanced systems; the character and role of resource and cost-sensitivity analysis; and the nature and value of models in systems analysis, especially the models provided by mathematical game theory, simulation, scenario writing, political analysis, and gaming. Earlier conclusions are reexamined in the light of the successes and failures of systems analysis during the past decade. Newer methods of analysis are discussed. (Formerly published by American Elsevier Publishing Company, 1968.)
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
The Trade-off Between Groundpower and Air Support: An Introductory Example of Systems Analysis
Chapter Three
Principles and Procedures of Systems Analysis
Chapter Four
Criteria and the Measurement of Effectiveness
Chapter Five
Uncertainty
Chapter Six
Technological Considerations
Chapter Seven
Resource Analysis
Chapter Eight
Cost-Sensitivity Analysis: An Example
Chapter Nine
The B-x: A Hypothetical Bomber Cost Study
Chapter Ten
The Nature of Models
Chapter Eleven
Mathematical Models of Conflict
Chapter Twelve
Simulation
Chapter Thirteen
SAMSOM: A Logistics Simulation
Chapter Fourteen
Gaming
Chapter Fifteen
The Analysis of Force Policy and Posture Interactions
Chapter Sixteen
Scenarios in Systems Analysis
Chapter Seventeen
U.S. Space Policy: An Example of Political Analysis
Chapter Eighteen
When Quantitative Models Are Inadequate
Chapter Nineteen
Pitfalls and Limitations
Chapter Twenty
The Changing Environment for Systems Analysis
Chapter Twenty-One
The Trade-Off Study Revisited
Chapter Twenty-Two
By Way of Summary
Research conducted by
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