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An examination of the present and future usefulness of systems analysis as an approach to policy planning, particularly in matters of national security. The study considers the basic concepts of systems analysis, including the problem of selecting operationally useful objectives, measures of their attainment, and criteria; the treatment of uncertainty; the place and function of technological considerations in planning or evaluating advanced systems; the character and role of resource and cost-sensitivity analysis; and the nature and value of models in systems analysis, especially the models provided by mathematical game theory, simulation, scenario writing, political analysis, and gaming. Earlier conclusions are reexamined in the light of the successes and failures of systems analysis during the past decade. Newer methods of analysis are discussed. (Formerly published by American Elsevier Publishing Company, 1968.)

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

    E. S. Quade

  • Chapter Two

    The Trade-off Between Groundpower and Air Support: An Introductory Example of Systems Analysis

    M. G. Weiner

  • Chapter Three

    Principles and Procedures of Systems Analysis

    E. S. Quade

  • Chapter Four

    Criteria and the Measurement of Effectiveness

    L. D. Attaway

  • Chapter Five

    Uncertainty

    Albert Madansky

  • Chapter Six

    Technological Considerations

    H. Rosenzweig

  • Chapter Seven

    Resource Analysis

    G. H. Fisher

  • Chapter Eight

    Cost-Sensitivity Analysis: An Example

    R. L. Petruschell

  • Chapter Nine

    The B-x: A Hypothetical Bomber Cost Study

    W. E. Mooz

  • Chapter Ten

    The Nature of Models

    R. D. Specht

  • Chapter Eleven

    Mathematical Models of Conflict

    Melvin Dresher

  • Chapter Twelve

    Simulation

    Norman C. Dalkey

  • Chapter Thirteen

    SAMSOM: A Logistics Simulation

    Chauncey F. Bell

  • Chapter Fourteen

    Gaming

    M. G. Weiner

  • Chapter Fifteen

    The Analysis of Force Policy and Posture Interactions

    Roger Levien

  • Chapter Sixteen

    Scenarios in Systems Analysis

    Seyom Brown

  • Chapter Seventeen

    U.S. Space Policy: An Example of Political Analysis

    Alton Frye

  • Chapter Eighteen

    When Quantitative Models Are Inadequate

    E. S. Quade

  • Chapter Nineteen

    Pitfalls and Limitations

    E. S. Quade

  • Chapter Twenty

    The Changing Environment for Systems Analysis

    James R. Schlesinger

  • Chapter Twenty-One

    The Trade-Off Study Revisited

    L. H. Wegner

  • Chapter Twenty-Two

    By Way of Summary

    E. S. Quade

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