California's Electricity Quandary

I. Estimating Future Demand

by W. E. Mooz, C. C. Mow

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A study conducted for the California State Resources Agency. Energy policy formulation by the state will depend largely on the anticipated magnitude of demands for electrical energy. The report summarizes the development of a methodology which may be used for projecting and analyzing future demands for electricity, and its application to five plausible alternative futures. Projections for the five cases show demand growth rates of 3.8 to 6.3 percent, compared to the historical trend of 8.9 percent. It is concluded that future demands will be lower than projected from historical trends or by utilities. The study will be an input to the Resources Agency Twenty-Year Power Plant Siting Plan, and the methodology may be used by the state for making their own projections and analyses. Related studies were performed for the California State Assembly and are reported in R-1115 and R-1116.

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