A Methodology for Projecting the Electrical Energy Demand of the Commercial Sector in California

by W. E. Mooz, C. C. Mow

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Description of detailed projection methodologies developed for the commercial sector, the mining portion of the industrial sector, and other small sectors of the California economy (agriculture, railroads, government, utilities themselves). The largest and also the fastest-growing consumer of electricity is the commercial sector. Analysis of this sector was hindered by data limitations, but it was still possible to provide more detail than traditional methods. In the commercial, mining, and governmental sectors, the methodologies developed are based upon sector output (dollars of value added or contribution to gross state product), electrical energy intensiveness (kilowatt-hours consumed per dollar of value added), and the price of electricity and natural gas. Isolation of energy intensiveness provides insights into the changing use of electricity over time and enables analysis of how and why it is changing in the sector.

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