Analysis of the Educational Personnel System

V. The Supply of Elementary and Secondary Teachers

by Stephen J. Carroll, K. F. Ryder

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Analysis of the paths by which individuals are attracted to, trained for, enter, and reenter the teaching profession. A review of previous analyses of the teacher market is followed by development of a theoretical model of occupational choice that identifies the influence of economic factors upon an individual's career decision. The model is estimated cross-sectionally, using currently available data on teacher production rates by state. Results suggest that (1) previous studies have overestimated the annual supplies of new teachers; (2) the teacher surplus is likely to peak and then begin to decline in the near future; (3) if anticipated declines materialize, the surplus is likely to end in the early 1980s; and (4) there is a distinct possibility that the system will "overrespond" to the surplus, in the sense that a significant teacher shortage will follow.

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