Analysis of the Educational Personnel System

VIII. The Market for Teachers

by Stephen J. Carroll

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Develops a number of alternative projections of the market for teachers, showing what might be the future course of the surplus in various circumstances. The results suggest that (1) the surplus is likely to peak and then begin to decline in the next few years, possibly ending in the early 1980s; (2) there is considerable inertia in the supply of teachers; and (3) the end of the surplus is likely to be followed by a shortage of teachers. Policy issues that arise from the prospect of continuing imbalance in the market for teachers suggest that balance in the market is not necessarily desirable. However, before educational manpower policy can proceed, a basic issue must be resolved: How are the benefits and costs that accrue to teachers to be weighed vis a vis the benefits and costs that accrue to students, the community, and the society as a whole?

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