Attacking Hardened Air Bases (AHAB)

A Decision Analysis Aid for the Tactical Commander

by C. Richard Neu


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User's guide to an interactive JOSS computer program that aids a tactical air commander in planning a strike on a hardened Warsaw Pact airbase. The AHAB program elicits from him information about the base to be attacked, his estimates of several uncertain quantities, and his preferences concerning the emphasis to be placed on different objectives: (1) time the runway is unusable, (2) number of aircraft shelters destroyed, (3) number of enemy aircraft destroyed, and (4) number of attacking aircraft lost. AHAB includes a stochastic model for each, with probability distributions from which the outcome is chosen by random draws. The number of craters on the runway is computed as a function of the number of aircraft assigned to runway destruction and the tactics they use. An application of Bayesian decision analysis, AHAB is unique in employing a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function to characterize the decisionmaker's preferences and attitudes toward risk. The printout record of an example session is included.

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