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Air Reserve Personnel Study

Vol. III, Total Force Planning, Personnel Costs, and the Supply of New Reservists

by Bernard D. Rostker

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Examines recruiting and personnel costs for the Air Reserve Forces in the new draft-free environment. It applies an economic model to the draft period 1968-1969 as a means of understanding the effect that a zero draft has, and will continue to have on the supply and cost of reserve personnel. The empirical findings are that the long-range effect of ending the draft is to alter economic incentives that previously favored participation in the reserves. Under present pay and utilization policies the Air Reserve Forces will not be able to staff their units. While wage increases could be used to encourage new enlistments, increases would have to be so large that the reserves may no longer be cost-effective.

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