Air Reserve Forces Personnel Study

Vol. IV, Personnel Shortages and Combat Capability

by F. J. Morgan, Leonard V. Scifers, D. K. Shelton

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The expectation that the Air Reserve Forces (ARF) would, in the absence of draft pressure, experience continuing large shortages of nonprior-service (NPS) recruits prompted this study. The supply of enlisted NPS recruits for ARF flying units is diminishing despite intensified recruitment efforts. The study objectives were to determine the magnitude of NPS shortages in ARF flying units through 1978, estimate the extent to which these shortages will reduce wartime capability, and ascertain what can be done to eliminate or minimize any reduction in wartime capability. The study concentrates exclusively on the aircraft maintenance squadron as a surrogate for measuring loss of wartime capability because shortages in maintenance will degrade the capability of the ARF unit to generate sorties or flying hours. It appears that NPS shortages are unlikely to reduce ARF combat capability if there continues to be an ample supply of career part-timers.

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