Forecasting Demand for Medical Care for the Purpose of Planning Health Services

by Joseph P. Newhouse


Full Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 1.2 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.


Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback36 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

How complex a model is needed to predict the demand for health services in the United States? To overcome the high cost of obtaining information for sophisticated models, Newhouse estimates a simplified version of a model for predicting the demand for hospital and physician services to ascertain the model's properties. "Simplification" involved making demand a function of only demographic variables, which can readily be obtained, and omitting measures of health status, price, and insurance coverage, which are unavailable. Unfortunately, this simplification is impractical for today's health planning because changes in insurance influence demand too greatly to be omitted from predictive equations, even if data on labor force participation, income, and education are available as explanatory variables. These variables are not satisfactory proxies. Over time, insurance may cease to be as critical in predicting demand, but for the next several years it is likely to remain important.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.