Forecasting Demand for Medical Care for the Purpose of Planning Health Services

by Joseph P. Newhouse

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 1.2 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback36 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

How complex a model is needed to predict the demand for health services in the United States? To overcome the high cost of obtaining information for sophisticated models, Newhouse estimates a simplified version of a model for predicting the demand for hospital and physician services to ascertain the model's properties. "Simplification" involved making demand a function of only demographic variables, which can readily be obtained, and omitting measures of health status, price, and insurance coverage, which are unavailable. Unfortunately, this simplification is impractical for today's health planning because changes in insurance influence demand too greatly to be omitted from predictive equations, even if data on labor force participation, income, and education are available as explanatory variables. These variables are not satisfactory proxies. Over time, insurance may cease to be as critical in predicting demand, but for the next several years it is likely to remain important.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.