Middle-Term Loss Prediction Models for the Air Force's Enlisted Force Management System

Specification and Estimation

by Grace M. Carter, Michael Murray, R. Ylmaz Arguden, Marygail K. Brauner, Allan Abrahamse, Harvey J. Greenberg, Debbie Drezner


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This study specifies equations for models that predict the loss and reenlistment behavior of airmen. The cohort models described here — where cohorts are defined based on an airman's position in his career — provide information about how airmen would respond to changes in economic conditions, military pay raises, and bonuses. Developed for the Air Force's Enlisted Force Management System, these models allow forecasts of the behavior of different demographic groups and people in different occupations.

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