Report
The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World
Jan 1, 2004
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The September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon illustrate the difficulty of forecasting new and emerging trends in terrorism. Although U.S. intelligence and security communities were tracking the activities of al Qaeda long before that day, many analysts appear to have underestimated either the network's degree of hostility toward the United States or its ability to carry out a catastrophic attack. Planners and policymakers must prioritize U.S. counterterrorism activities amid a constantly evolving field of potential adversaries. They must not only grasp the current threats to U.S. security but must also understand how terrorist groups' motivations and capabilities will evolve in the future.
The U.S. Air Force asked RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) to assess the character and magnitude of terrorist threats against the United States. PAF researchers developed a "threat framework" to evaluate terrorist groups on the basis of their motivations and ability to threaten U.S. interests. They also analyzed how terrorist groups maintain their capabilities and adapt to external pressures such as counterterrorism. Key insights include the following:
U.S. policymakers can use these insights to track the development of terrorist groups over time and to plan counterterrorism measures that are most likely to weaken or destroy a particular group.
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