Having Trouble Finding Good Workers?

They’re Right Under Your Nose

Research SummaryPublished Aug 4, 2026

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Many businesses are looking to hire, and myths about people who have criminal convictions can prevent hiring managers from tapping a big pool of productive, trustworthy workers.

When you learn the facts about hiring people who have been convicted of a crime, you can base business decisions on fact, not myth.

RAND research is crystal clear: The vast majority of people who have been convicted of a crime don’t reoffend.

Myth

“It’s risky to hire people with convictions because most of them reoffend.”

Fact

The vast majority of people who have a criminal record will not reoffend.

In one group of five states, 80 percent of people who had a criminal record did not reoffend within a decade. Even in two states that have higher rates of reoffending, 66 percent of people with criminal records didn’t reoffend in the same period.

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Myth

“A job candidate who doesn’t have a criminal conviction is always less likely to get in trouble again than a job candidate who has a criminal conviction in their past.”

Fact

The probability of a person being convicted of another crime falls fast, soon resembling the probability of those with no criminal history.

Time since last conviction (years) and reconviction rate for someone with a first-conviction misdemeanor at age 22 (percentage)

  • One year: 3%
  • Two years: 2.5%
  • Three years: 3%
  • Four years: 2.2%
  • Five years: 2%
  • Six years: 1.8%
  • Seven years: 1.7%
  • Eight years: 1.6%
  • Nine years: 1.6%

The statistical probability that a 30-year-old person with a criminal history who has gone eight years without receiving a new conviction will reoffend in the next year is lower than the probability that a 20-year-old person will be convicted of a crime for the first time.

(Among people with no prior convictions, 2 percent are likely to be convicted of a crime in the next year.)

Pop Quiz

For the following job candidates, what is the probability of receiving a conviction within a year of being hired? Fill in the blank:

  1. A 20-year-old with no convictions: ____ percent
  2. A 25-year-old with one misdemeanor at age 18: ____ percent
  3. A 30-year-old with one felony and one misdemeanor charge at age 22: ____ percent
  4. A 35-year-old with a felony (resulting in a six-month incarceration) at age 30: ____ percent

(ANSWER: Trick question! For each of these candidates, the probability of receiving a conviction is roughly the same and is quite low: 2.2 percent.)

Okay, but how do I select good workers who have past convictions?

Just remember TAPP. It’s your guide to choosing workers who are most likely to avoid crime.

  • T – Time since last conviction: The probability of reoffending declines rapidly with the amount of time the person has spent in society.
  • A – Age: The likelihood of one’s involvement with crime declines after age 20.
  • P – Prior convictions: How many? People with fewer convictions are more likely to avoid crime.
  • P – Programs: Completion of vocational or educational programs is a signal that a person has changed.
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Having Trouble Finding Good Workers? They’re Right Under Your Nose. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA1360-2.html.
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