Relationships for Estimating Peacetime Aircraft Attrition

by W. E. Mooz

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Methods for estimating future peacetime attrition of military aircraft are described. Correlation of attrition data shows that it is possible to fit a simple mathematical expression to the attrition history of an individual aircraft (by type and model) and to use that expression to estimate the cumulative number of aircraft lost after any given number of flying hours for existing aircraft. To estimate losses of future aircraft, a graphical method is developed from the relationship between cumulative aircraft losses and date of first flight of aircraft of similar type with the same number of engines (if a fighter) and the same type of mission.

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