The parameters of a prior distribution are specified for two cases: the reliability of a unit that either performs satisfactorily throughout a mission or does not, and the failure rate of a unit that fails according to the exponential distribution. Prediction of demand for spares is considered in each case. The method for specifying the parameters requires only information corresponding to the most likely value of reliability, and to the subjective odds that the error in this estimate is less than a given percentage.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.