A Bayesian Approach to Reliability Assessment

by Bennett L. Fox

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The parameters of a prior distribution are specified for two cases: the reliability of a unit that either performs satisfactorily throughout a mission or does not, and the failure rate of a unit that fails according to the exponential distribution. Prediction of demand for spares is considered in each case. The method for specifying the parameters requires only information corresponding to the most likely value of reliability, and to the subjective odds that the error in this estimate is less than a given percentage.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

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