Cover: The Postattack Population of the United States

The Postattack Population of the United States

Published 1966

by Ira S. Lowry


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An analysis of the demographic consequences of a nuclear attack on the United States in terms of size of the postattack population; its rate of growth in subsequent decades; its composition by age, sex, and color; and postattack patterns of fertility and mortality. Five nuclear attacks are simulated and the demographic consequences computed by means of the RAND damage-assessment model, QUICK COUNT. The range of alternative outcomes from the five simulated attacks is increased to fifteen by variation of damage-assessment parameters. In terms of total fatalities, these outcomes range from 2 to 62 percent of the preattack population. Only disparities of age among those surviving appear to have short-run or long-run significance either in a purely demographic sense or from the perspective of recovery planning.

This report is part of the RAND research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of RAND from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

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