The Delphi Method, III

Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates

by Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, S. W. Cochran

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.6 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback32 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments. A series of experiments was conducted using 16 groups of upper-class and graduate college students answering almanac-type questions (20 subjects per group and 20 questions per subject). The findings indicate that if the difference in average self-rating between the subgroups is substantial, and if the subgroups are held to reasonable size, both the degree of improvement and the total number of improvements are greater than when feedback alone is used. This study augments the results reported in RM-5888 and RM-5957.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.