Four models are used to estimate the future supply and distribution of physicians in Arkansas in 1970-1980 and to illustrate forecasting techniques that will be helpful to the Arkansas Planning Commission in long-range planning. The form of the models was dictated by their purpose--to predict rather than to explain the supply of physicians--by the data limitations, and by the different assumptions on which each model is based. The results were as follows: Model I estimates a 29 percent increase in the supply of Arkansas physicians over the next decade; Model II, a 16.7 percent increase in total supply but only a 7.4 percent increase per capita; Model III, a 14 percent increase; and Model IV shows that physicians discriminate against low-income counties. Approximately 65 percent of all physicians practicing in the State graduated from the University of Arkansas School of Medicine. (See also RM-6352.) 44 pp.
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