RAND evaluated potential effects of uncertain projections of demand and climate change on the ability of the Jinan Municipal Water Resources Bureau to meet its long-term water resources goals. This document describes RAND's approach and results, including development of a mathematical simulation model of the Jinan water supply system and analysis of the system's performance if new strategies and investments were to be implemented.

Evaluation of the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan and Recommendations for Improvement

David G. Groves, Debra Knopman, James Syme, Nidhi Kalra, Zhimin Mao

ResearchPublished Mar 9, 2017

Cover: Evaluation of the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan and Recommendations for Improvement
Download PDF
Additional Downloads

Includes Translations

The Jinan Municipal Water Resources Bureau, with support from the Shandong Provincial Department of Water Resources, asked RAND to evaluate potential effects of demand and climate uncertainties on investments recently undertaken according to the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan. RAND was also asked to assess the potential of new investments and management strategies to help Jinan meet its long-term water resources goals. RAND's approach uses well-tested methods of decision support, starting with building a shared understanding of the nature of the decision, metrics to evaluate progress toward goals, key uncertainties that drive outcomes, and relevant physical and other relationships within Jinan's complex water system. The approach also uses visualizations to help policymakers understand the implications of the results, build consensus, and facilitate decision making. This document describes RAND's approach and results, including the development of a mathematical simulation model of the Jinan water system, using the Water Evaluation and Planning software developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute, and analysis of the system's performance under a range of uncertainties about future climate and demand across sectors.

Key Takeaways

Projected Demand, River Allocations, and Changes in Climate Affect Residential, Industrial, and Agricultural Sectors

  • Because of data limitations, particularly pertaining to surface and groundwater interactions, model results should be taken as instructive and not definitive.
  • All of the downscaled climate projections show warming. However, there is scientific disagreement about whether conditions will be getting wetter or drier. One of the benefits of this analysis is that it helps Jinan officials understand how important this uncertainty is by looking at results across a wide range of wetter and drier conditions. Our study shows that it is not an important factor in most cases.
  • Unmet demand in the residential sector is driven more by levels of projected demand and allocation of Yellow River resources than by changes in future climate.
  • Under a medium demand projection and full Yellow River allocation, the industrial sector is vulnerable only under an assumption of low initial groundwater storage. Under a 50-percent Yellow River allocation, the industrial sector is vulnerable under all demand projections, regardless of initial groundwater assumptions.
  • The vulnerability of the agricultural sector depends on future climate more than the residential and industrial sectors. We see no shortages in the wettest climates but very significant shortages in drier climates.
  • Jinan's springs are vulnerable across all futures. Even in wet climates, low spring flows each year occur around three months on average; in dry climates, low flows appear on average about eight months each year.

Recommendations

  • Strategies in the residential sector that include reuse and full implementation of water use efficiency reduce vulnerabilities significantly.
  • The industrial sector is more vulnerable than the residential sector. Increasing reuse helps to eliminate unmet demand almost entirely.
  • The agricultural sector is less vulnerable than the other sectors, but any measures that reduce irrigation demands in drier climates will be essential. Because agricultural unmet demand is relatively small, as ample surface and groundwater supplies are available in the districts in which agriculture dominates, excess supply could be transferred elsewhere in the system with new conveyance structures.
  • All strategies that include the proposed Springs Adaptive Groundwater Management policy reduce the number of months of low spring flow.
  • Management of groundwater resources is a key to Jinan's future. More extensive and efficient use of surface water resources to satisfy demands across the sectors will reduce pressure on groundwater.
  • Efforts should continue to improve the quality of input data to the Jinan WEAP model. Priority should be given to those parameters that relate to ground- and surface water interactions.
  • The Jinan WEAP model should be considered a work in progress and tool for improving understanding of Jinan's complex water management system. We recommend that a single individual be responsible for overseeing model development, maintenance, and operations.
  • Consideration should be given for linking the output of a well-calibrated, high-resolution groundwater model to the Jinan WEAP model. This would improve the ability of the Jinan WEAP model to represent surface and groundwater interactions, particularly the behavior of the spring systems.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Groves, David G., Debra Knopman, James Syme, Nidhi Kalra, and Zhimin Mao, Evaluation of the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan and Recommendations for Improvement. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1682.html.
BibTeX RIS

The research reported here was conducted in the Infrastructure Resilience and Environmental Policy Program within RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.