Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict, and external actors have become involved as well. RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play, including the actors, their motivations, and potential impact of their activities.
Download
Download Free Electronic Document
| Format | File Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PDF file | 0.2 MB | Best for desktop computers. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
| ePub file | 1.9 MB | Best for mobile devices. On desktop computers and some mobile devices, you may need to download an eBook reader to view ePub files. Calibre is an example of a free and open source e-book library management application. |
| mobi file | 0.7 MB | Best for Kindle 1-3. On desktop computers and some mobile devices, you may need to download an eBook reader to view mobi files. Amazon Kindle is the most popular reader for mobi files. |
Purchase
Purchase Print Copy
| Format | List Price | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add to Cart | Paperback12 pages | $9.95 | $7.96 20% Web Discount |
Research Questions
- What is driving both regional (e.g., Iran and Saudi Arabia) and extra-regional (e.g., Russia) players to intervene?
- Who are the internal actors, and are they operating as conduits of external influence?
- How do the external players fit in, and what are the possible outcomes of their involvement?
Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict. Along with internal escalation, the conflict has drawn in external actors, including Syria's neighbors and extra-regional powers. With the regional balance of power hinging on the conflict's outcome, Middle Eastern and extra-regional states have taken sides — some in support of the Assad regime, others in support of the opposition. RAND convened a group of 26 experts who cover Syria and the various external players to participate in an analytic exercise on November 16, 2012, to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play. The report begins by analyzing what is driving both regional (e.g., Iran and Saudi Arabia) and extra-regional (e.g., Russia) players to intervene in the Syrian conflict. It then proceeds to look at the internal actors (e.g., the Free Syrian Army and Alawite community) that may operate as conduits of external influence. The report concludes with an examination of the relationships between external and internal actors and possible effects of these groups' actions.
Key Findings
External Players Might Affect the Conflict's Outcome
- The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from external state actors has the potential to perpetuate the civil war in Syria and ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims.
- There is an asymmetry of interests among external actors: Those supporting the Assad regime see the conflict's stakes in starker terms than do supporters of the opposition.
- External influence in the Syrian conflict would be decisive only if the United States significantly increased the scope of its support to the opposition or Iran or Russia significantly ratcheted back their support for Assad.
Internal Players Are Expected to Have Less Effect
- None of the "fence sitters" inside Syria are likely to tip the balance of the conflict.
- Increased jihadi participation within the opposition will result in less support from most external actors and from "fence sitters" inside Syria.
Research conducted by
This research was conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.