Jeffrey Martini

A Unique Opportunity Not to Be Squandered: Advancing Our Relationships in Central Asia

Concerned about Putin's imperialist actions in Ukraine, five nations in Central Asia are looking to the West to offset the political, economic, and security-related pressures they feel from Russia and, increasingly, China. It would be a mistake for the United States not to seize this moment.

Appreciating U.S. Ground Force Contributions to Operation Inherent Resolve

Defeating ISIS hinged on a ground fight, requiring the grueling liberation of territory kilometer by kilometer. While Iraqi forces bore the brunt of frontline fighting, U.S. forces were also engaged in on-the-ground combat operations that hastened the defeat of ISIS. Appreciating such contributions will be necessary to distill the right lessons so that we might correctly apply them to future irregular warfare.

Implementing Arab Gulf Reconciliation

As the Arab Gulf states prepare to engage with a new U.S. administration, their recent reconciliation announcement offers an opportunity to advance their interests as well as mutual interests with the United States. But the Gulf states' intent to end their feud will very likely not be sufficient unless the agreement is deepened through confidence-building measures and expanded by reaching a parallel understanding with Turkey.

Don't Overestimate the Power of Iraqi Protests

As protests in Iraq grow, a “good news” narrative seems to be developing that they are a significant blow to Iranian influence. But the bigger story is not who is up and who is down between Washington and Tehran; it is that yet another Arab public has taken to the streets demanding change.

The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand

Without an orderly process for its national security decisions, the Trump administration has defaulted to the worst option regarding Syria. The sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces has left an opening for Russia to exploit. It also left the Kurds, a U.S. partner, to fend off a Turkish assault.

Indecision in Washington Compounded the Kurds' Dilemma

Core qualities of statesmanship and statecraft have been notably lacking in charting the U.S. administration's Syria end game. This has compounded the unavoidable costs of withdrawal with charges of betrayal and a retreat under fire.

Time to Make a Deal on Syria

U.S. leverage is much diminished by the Assad regime's recent gains but there are still opportunities for Washington and Russia to achieve a settlement that preserves some U.S. interests. These include maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State and constraining Iranian influence in Syria.

Conditioning American Withdrawal from Syria

U.S. forces will soon withdraw from Syria, and the U.S. State Department put a hold on further stabilization assistance to areas liberated from the Islamic State. The U.S. and its partners should offer stabilization and reconstruction help, particularly in regions where much of the damage was the result of American-supported military operations.

How to Help Syrians — Without Helping Assad

The U.S. and others have a major interest in ending the Syrian civil war, helping the millions of displaced Syrians, and preventing the re-emergence of the Islamic State. But they are naturally reluctant to assist rebuilding a country run by Assad and supported by Russia and Iran. What are their options?

Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides

Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.

(Withholding) Judgment of the U.S. Missile Strike on Syria

Will the U.S. missile strike in Syria constrain the Assad regime from future chemical weapons use? Rather than pass judgment, analysts should establish the benchmarks by which they will assess this decision once the facts are in.

The Need for a Targeted Counter-ISIL Strategy

Defeating ISIL is only possible if political conditions change in the Middle East, North and West Africa, and South Asia, and in ways that are exceedingly unlikely. The coalition should focus on reducing ISIL's ability to conduct attacks and on removing the underlying conditions that feed Sunni grievances.

RAND Experts Q&A on the Iran Nuclear Deal, One Year Later

Looking back on the past year, five RAND experts respond to a series of critical questions about the Iran nuclear deal, its implementation, and potential challenges ahead.

The Next Generation of Leaders in the Gulf

The face of leadership in the Persian Gulf is getting younger. There are reasons not to assume that the Gulf's young leaders will gravitate to democratization. But their rise does provide an opportunity for a much-needed update to U.S. strategy in the region.

A Realistic Peace Plan for Syria Needs to Begin with an Immediate Cease-Fire

To reach peace in Syria, the International Syria Support Group should concentrate on securing an immediate cease-fire and arranging for its enforcement, followed by further negotiations on the shape of a reconstituted Syrian state.

Partisans Without Parties

It is tempting to describe Egypt's parliamentary elections as history repeating itself. Yet today's Egypt is not Mubarak's Egypt. Rather, it is a state transitioning from single-party rule to a new system whose pecking order is still being hashed out.

Peace in the Middle East: America's New Post-Iran Deal Challenge

It is no surprise that the final Iran nuclear deal was met with opposition in Israel and Saudi Arabia. For all the talk about whether or not this is a good deal, negotiating with Iran was the original sin from their perspective.

The Iran Nuclear Deal: RAND Experts Answer Questions About the Days Ahead

Diplomats have reached a nuclear agreement with Iran. Now, the United States faces important policy decisions that will help shape the days ahead and the relationship that emerges between Iran and the other parties involved.

Seduced by a Strongman?

It is not true that domestic politics can be quarantined from foreign policy. In fact, Egypt's domestic and foreign policies are becoming more entangled by the day. And that bleed-over should raise concerns.

The Egyptian Regime's Achilles' Heel

As the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood reclaiming power recedes, it will become difficult for the new authorities in Egypt to hold together a coalition that is built solely on its members' shared antipathy for the Islamist group.

Playing Good Cop, Bad Cop with Iran

On the one hand, U.S. negotiators must convince their Iranian counterparts that the United States is serious about offering genuine sanctions relief in return for Tehran making concessions on its nuclear ambitions. On the other hand, the negotiating team must also assuage the concerns of allies and members of Congress.

Egyptian Liberals, Please Stand Up

While Egypt really is in trouble, what is needed is not a U.S. signal in the form of an aid cut off or another European mediation effort, it is for Egyptian liberals to stand up and condition their participation in government on genuine national reconciliation.

Halting Aid to Egypt Over Military 'Coup' Would Hurt US Interests

Critics advocate for acknowledging that what occurred in Egypt is a coup and shutting off the more than $1.5 billion that Egypt receives annually from the US government. But this position fails to appreciate the limits of the leverage Washington derives from its aid to Cairo and the potential consequences of halting it.

The Egyptian Military's Playbook

The Egyptian military, still bruised from its last stint in power, is likely to proceed with caution this time around. If it does intervene, it will likely seek some acquiescence from the Islamists and will want to quickly form an inclusive caretaker government.

Egypt's Self-Fulfilling Prophesy

Rebel, or Tamarud, is a petition drive aimed at ousting President Morsi by collecting more signatures calling for his resignation than the number of votes he received in the 2012 elections. On June 30, the organizers will take to the streets in a rally that is likely to touch off clashes with security forces and Morsi's supporters.

Political Impasse in Egypt

If there ever was a honeymoon in Egypt's post-Mubarak politics, it is long over. The two main ideological camps—Islamists and secular-liberals—have shown a willingness to cooperate only when brought together by a common foe, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Muslim Brotherhood Failing to Learn from Mistakes

The Muslim Brotherhood is falling into the same trap of overreach exhibited by the Egyptian military when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) held the reins of authority during the first 16 months of the transition, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Headscarves on Egyptian Newscasts Are a Victory for Tolerance

Lifting the Egyptian ban on headscarves on TV newscasts can be seen as a positive development. It ends state discrimination against those who wish to show their faith outwardly.

How Does Arab Spring Compare to Third Wave Transitions?

The changes underway in the Arab world may lead to various possible destinations that differ both from their points of departure and from liberal democracy, write Laurel Miller and Jeffrey Martini.

Egypt's New President Has the Mandate—What about the Power?

Mohamed Morsi's victory is a huge step in Egypt's political development, but his authorities were recently curtailed by the military and it is unclear how much power he will actually wield, writes Jeffrey Martini.

The Egyptian Military Wins Again

The Muslim Brotherhood now faces a choice. It can seat Mursi and continue to legitimate a post-Mubarak transition that seems designed to advance the narrow interests of Egypt's officer corps. Or it can return to the streets with the aim of unseating the military council, writes Jeff Martini.

Cairo's Candidate Shuffle

Just as before the disqualifications, the fundamental decision voters face is about the scope and nature of the change Egypt will undergo in the coming years. And there are still candidates representing almost every position on that spectrum, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future

The SCAF's attempts to curtail dissent and the democratic process have fueled doubts about its true intentions. Will the military fulfill its promise to support democracy? Or will it seek to replace Mubarak's rule with its own or that of a friendly autocrat? write Jeffrey Martini and Julie Taylor.

Report

Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command: Incorporating Climate Change

This report presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

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Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command

This report examines how U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners could use operations, activities, and investments in the coming decades to address security threats related to stressors from climate change in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

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A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead: An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

This report characterizes how climate hazards will affect the physical environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility in 2035, 2050, and 2070.

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Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility

This report presents an analysis of how U.S. competitors and adversaries — China, Russia, and Iran — could attempt to exploit climate-related conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in future decades.

Report

Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command

This report presents an analysis of the pathways from climate change to conflict and how that relationship is unfolding in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

Research Brief

Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

As climate change increasingly disrupts human and natural systems, this report presents analysis and characterizes how climate hazards could affect the physical and security environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility.

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Deterring Russia and Iran: Improving Effectiveness and Finding Efficiencies

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies, RAND researchers assess the impact of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation on deterrence in Europe and the Middle East.

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Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations

This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

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Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends

The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

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Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications

The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.

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Operation Inherent Resolve: U.S. Ground Force Contributions

This report, which outlines four battles within Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) and reviews U.S. ground force contributions to those battles, is intended to address gaps both in analysis and in the common understanding of OIR.

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Building Military Coalitions: Lessons from U.S. Experience

This report describes factors that seem to be associated with U.S. decisions to use coalitions for military interventions, factors that drive partner states to join such coalitions, and factors that shape the success of military coalitions.

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Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

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Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States: Executive Summary

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

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The Iran Threat Network (ITN): Four Models of Iran's Nonstate Client Partnerships

The authors explore Iran's relationships with nonstate actors to better enable the U.S. government to counter Iranian subversion in the region via the Iran Threat Network, a loose network of non-Iranian, nonstate groups supported by Tehran.

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Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East: Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments (Executive Summary)

In this summary, researchers assess the advantages and trade-offs of a reimagined Middle East strategy where strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that prioritizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater development.

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Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East: Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments

Researchers assess the advantages and trade-offs of a reimagined Middle East strategy where strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that prioritizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater growth and development.

Research Brief

The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS

The United States used airpower in Syria and Iraq to halt ISIS's momentum and help defeat the organization, without committing a large number of ground forces.

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The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Role of Airpower in Operation Inherent Resolve

Airpower played a pivotal role in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State from 2014 to 2019 and contributed to the success of Operation Inherent Resolve, but airpower alone would not have been likely to defeat the militant organization.

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Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint

Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors identify unanswered questions about such a strategy.

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Stabilizing Eastern Syria After ISIS

The authors assessed humanitarian needs in Eastern Syria's Middle Euphrates River Valley and examined how locally focused stabilization efforts might be orchestrated to help preclude the Islamic State's recapture of territory.

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Barriers to Employment That Women Face in Egypt: Policy Challenges and Considerations

In this report, the authors examine key issues (such as childcare costs, negative attitudes, wage gaps, and sexual harassment) that constrain women's employment and could hinder improvement of Egypt's economic outlook.

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Turkey's Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army

The longstanding U.S. strategic partnership with Turkey, a powerful NATO ally, has become strained in recent years. RAND researchers assess challenges confronting the partnership and advance recommendations for sustaining it over the coming decade.

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Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack

This report provides a summary of the risks, proliferation, costs of man-portable air defense system attacks against commercial aviation targets. It also presents mitigation options against such an attack.

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America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity

This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.

Research Brief

Countering Sectarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Iraq

This research draws lessons on how to promote resilience to sectarianism and cross-sectarian cooperation through an exploration of four Middle Eastern case studies: Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Iraq.

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Countering Sectarianism in the Middle East

What drives sectarianism in the Middle East? This report explores how communities inoculate themselves from sectarianism or recover from it and draws lessons on how to promote resilience and cross-sectarian cooperation.

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Finding the Right Balance: Department of Defense Roles in Stabilization

This report supports Department of Defense efforts to update its stabilization guidance by assessing recent history and evaluating the roles for the U.S. military and its ability to execute them in conjunction with interagency and other key partners.

Commentary

U.S. Strategic Interests in the Middle East and Implications for the Army

This perspective examines threats to U.S. interests in the Middle East and factors associated with success and failure in U.S. military interventions, and offers recommendations for the Army as it prepares for future involvement in the region.

Commentary

A Peace Plan for Syria IV: A Bottom-Up Approach, Linking Reconstruction Assistance to Local Government Formation

In this fourth paper in a series addressing Syria's conflict, RAND researchers argue that an approach to reconstruction offered on a community-by-community basis could be part of the solution.

Commentary

The Future of Sectarian Relations in the Middle East

This Perspective lays out four scenarios for sectarian relations in the Middle East out to 2026, identifying key assumptions and drivers that will inform the trajectory of sectarian relations in this region.

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Rolling Back the Islamic State

This report assesses the threat the Islamic State poses to the United States and examines strategies to counter the group.

Commentary

A Peace Plan for Syria III: Agreed Zones of Control, Decentralization, and International Administration

In this third paper in a series addressing Syria's conflict, RAND researchers examine how recent developments in Syria and the region reinforce the prospects for a national ceasefire based upon agreed zones of control backed by external powers.

Commentary

A Strategy to Counter ISIL as a Transregional Threat

This Perspective offers a strategy to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL, as a transregional threat, with a focus on steps to confront the violent jihadist threat over the long term.

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The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation

This report examines what binds and divides the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years.

Commentary

A Peace Plan for Syria II: Options for Future Governance

In this second paper in a series addressing Syria's conflict, RAND researchers examine the possibility of decentralizing power in the country to limit current conflict and allow more time to develop a national transition process.

Brochure

Cultural Oasis: For Arab Children, Collected Works Offer Roads to Tolerance, Critical Thinking

Article from RAND Review that explores ways to cultivate a well-educated citizenry open to new ideas and capable of challenging the intolerant ideas of others in the Arab world.

Commentary

A Peace Plan for Syria

This essay presents a peace plan for Syria focused on the steps to secure and sustain a ceasefire. It concludes that the external parties that have supported the combatants will need to come together to guarantee and enforce any such ceasefire.

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The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

This study estimates the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other possible trajectories that the conflict could take.

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Choices for America in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink

Exploring the elements of a national strategy for U.S. foreign policy, the book examines critical global, regional, and other policy issues and decisions likely to confront the next president and senior U.S. officials in 2017 and beyond.

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Designing a System for Collecting Policy-Relevant Data for the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Arabic-language version

Surveys the availability of reliable policy-relevant data in the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq, identifies the high-priority areas for which more data are required, and develops guidance for a system to collect and disseminate these data on an ongoing basis.

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Strategies for Private-Sector Development and Civil-Service Reform in the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Arabic-language version

This monograph provides strategies to reemploy civil-service workers in the private sector and to increase private-sector employment in the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq.

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Designing a System for Collecting Policy-Relevant Data for the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Kurdish-language version

Surveys the availability of reliable policy-relevant data in the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq, identifies the high-priority areas for which more data are required, and develops guidance for a system to collect and disseminate these data on an ongoing basis.

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Strategies for Private-Sector Development and Civil-Service Reform in the Kurdistan Region — Iraq: Kurdish-language version

This monograph provides strategies to reemploy civil-service workers in the private sector and to increase private-sector employment in the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq.

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Designing a System for Collecting Policy-Relevant Data for the Kurdistan Region — Iraq

Surveys the availability of reliable policy-relevant data in the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq, identifies the high-priority areas for which more data are required, and develops guidance for a system to collect and disseminate these data on an ongoing basis.

Commentary

The Days After a Deal with Iran: Regional Responses to a Final Nuclear Agreement

This perspective posits that a final nuclear agreement is reached with Iran and then examines the potential responses of two of the most important U.S. partners in the region: Israel and Saudi Arabia.

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Strategies for Private-Sector Development and Civil-Service Reform in the Kurdistan Region — Iraq

Strategies for Private-Sector Development and Civil-Service Reform in the Kurdistan Region -- Iraq

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Libya After Qaddafi: Lessons and Implications for the Future

This report assesses the challenges facing Libya since the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime and evaluates the impact of the limited international role in efforts to overcome them. It also sketches possible future roles for the international community.

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Internet Freedom and Political Space

The Internet is a new battleground between governments that censor online content and those who advocate Internet freedom. This report examines the implications of Internet freedom for state-society relations in nondemocratic regimes.

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Airpower Options for Syria: Assessing Objectives and Missions for Aerial Intervention

Considers the goals of a potential aerial intervention in the Syrian civil war and examines the requirements, military potential, and risks of five principal missions that intervening air forces might be called on to carry out.

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Building Democracy on the Ashes of Authoritarianism in the Arab World: Workshop Summary

The RAND Corporation and the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization convened a workshop in Istanbul at which a range of authorities from Arab countries reflected on how to overcome obstacles to democratization.

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Democratization in the Arab World: A Summary of Lessons from Around the Globe (Arabic translation)

This publication is an Arabic translation of an updated summary of Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe. It is based on the summary published inside our 2012 volume, but has been modified to reflect recent events.

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Democratization in the Arab World: A Summary of Lessons from Around the Globe

This report is an updated version of the summary section of Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe. It is largely the same as the summary published in 2012, but has been modified somewhat to reflect recent events.

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Artists and the Arab Uprisings

Artists can play a positive role in shaping public debate and supporting democratic transition in the Middle East. This report explores challenges to artists after the Arab uprisings and how governments and nongovernmental actors can support them.

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Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt

To help U.S. policymakers and Middle East watchers better understand voting patterns in Egypt, RAND researchers identified regional voting trends and where Islamists are strongest. It appears they may face increasing challenges.

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Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition

With the regional balance of power hinging on the outcome of the Syrian uprising, RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of how external actors are shaping the conflict.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 36, No. 3, Winter 2012-2013

Stories discuss the promotion of tolerance and critical thinking in the Arab world through children's media, the challenges faced by the United States in an era of fiscal austerity, and promising models for measuring teacher performance.

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Libya's Post-Qaddafi Transition: The Nation-Building Challenge

A year after Qaddafi's death, the light-footprint approach to Libya's postwar transition faces a serious test; if handled adroitly, Libya could become a positive force for democratic stability in North Africa and a valuable partner against al-Qaeda.

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The Muslim Brotherhood, Its Youth, and Implications for U.S. Engagement

Since the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a key political player. The organization's youth merit attention not only as a challenge to organizational cohesion, but as a potential conduit for expanding U.S. engagement.

Research Brief

Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World (Arabic translation)

Daunting challenges lie ahead for countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world. Researchers identify the challenges these countries face and suggest policy approaches that may help foster enduring democracies.

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Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe

Daunting challenges face countries swept up in the Arab Spring. This monograph assesses the prospects for democratization in these countries and suggests how the international community can help it succeed.

Research Brief

Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World

Daunting challenges lie ahead for countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world. Researchers identify the challenges these countries face and suggest policy approaches that may help foster enduring democracies.

Research Brief

Economic Assistance During Stability and Support Operations

Designed to help U.S. Army personnel more effectively use economic assistance to support economic and infrastructure development.

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Managing Arab-Kurd Tensions in Northern Iraq After the Withdrawal of U.S. Troops

Presents options for mitigating the risk of Arab-Kurd conflict after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, including confidence-building measures and other means of alleviating ethnic tensions in northern Iraq.

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Iran's Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices

As Iran's nuclear program evolves, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and trade-offs. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.

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Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends

This report assesses likely demographic and economic trends in the Arab world through 2020, focusing on changes that are likely to affect U.S. defense planning and U.S. policy in the region.

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Identifying Arabic-Language Materials for Children That Promote Tolerance and Critical Thinking

Describes the creation of developmentally appropriate criteria used to identify and screen Arabic-language works for children that promote tolerance and critical thinking.

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Whither Al-Anbar Province? Five Scenarios Through 2011

Presents a discussion of likely scenarios for Iraq's al-Anbar Province over the course of the next three years.

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The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War

The Iraq War has created new challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy in the Middle East by affecting the regional balance of power, local views of U.S. credibility, the stability of Arab regimes, and the future of al-Qa'ida.

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Guidebook for Supporting Economic Development in Stability Operations

A guidebook to help U.S. Army personnel more effectively use economic assistance to support economic and infrastructure development.

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Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities

Because Iran's current regime is entrenched, U.S. policies should focus on long-run changes in Iran by cultivating favorable political, demographic, and economic trends.