Sep 30, 2020
This report describes the work done on estimating the costs of, and identifying potential funding sources for, Puerto Rico's economic and disaster recovery plan. Total estimated cost is $139 billion. Up to $94 billion of funding from the federal government and private insurance claims is estimated to be available. Sources to fill the gap include the Puerto Rico government, the private sector, public-private partnerships, and philanthropies.
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In August 2018 the government of Puerto Rico submitted an economic and disaster recovery plan to Congress describing a strategic approach toward recovery from the destruction caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, building resilience to withstand future disasters, and restoring the struggling economy. The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) provided substantial input for the plan's development. This report describes the work of the HSOAC cost and funding team—work that informed the overall development of the recovery plan on estimating the costs of courses of action (COAs) that comprise the plan, and on identifying potential funding sources for each COA.
A primary challenge was the sheer diversity of the activities included in the plan, which is due to the substantial number of COAs (276), their sectoral specificity, and the technical complexity of infrastructure and other investments. The total cost of the recovery plan is estimated to be $139 billion. This report also identifies potential funders for the COAs of the plan. Almost all the COAs are eligible for U.S. federal funding, but only $86 billion of such funding was estimated to be available when the recovery plan was submitted. $8 billion of private insurance claim funding was also estimated to be available, which leaves a $45 billion gap. Potential additional funders to close this gap include Puerto Rico government entities, either at the commonwealth or municipal level; proceeds from COAs that are revenue-generating projects; and non-government sources, such as private-sector funding, public-private partnerships, and philanthropies.
Estimating the Cost of the Recovery Plan
Summary and Conclusions
HSOAC is a federally funded research and development center operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS.