Report
Competing in the Gray Zone: Russian Tactics and Western Responses
Dec 11, 2019
The authors of this report developed a strategic-level structured card game examining a gray zone competition between Russia and the West in the Balkans. They detail the development of this game, including key design decisions, elements of the game, how the game is played, and the undergirding research approach. They conclude with a discussion of recommendations for future applications of the game design.
Gaming Gray Zone Tactics
Design Considerations for a Structured Strategic Game
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Research Questions
- Can a game model gray zone competition in a empirically ground sound yet playable way?
- What is the game design process for developing a structured strategic game for a complex political-military issue that simultaneously operates in two different time horizons?
- How can structured strategic gaming help researchers gain an understanding of adversary gray zone tactics and tools?
To explore how Russia could use gray zone tactics and to what effect, the authors of this report developed a strategic-level structured card game examining a gray zone competition between Russia and the West in the Balkans. In these games, the Russian player seeks to expand its influence and undermine NATO unity while competing against a European team and a U.S. team seeking to defend their allies from Russia's gray zone activities without provoking an outright war. This report details the authors' development of this game, including key design decisions, elements of the game, how the game is played, and the undergirding research approach. The authors conclude with recommendations for future applications of the game design.
Key Findings
The Balkans gray zone game demonstrated that structured strategy games are useful exploratory tools and this model could be adapted for other contexts and adversaries.
- While the gray zone remains a murky topic, this game demonstrated that it was feasible to break the gray zone down into concrete parts, to conduct research on each of these parts, and to link these components to create a playable strategic game that yielded useful insights.
- The scoped and structured approach to this game allowed for enough structure to keep discussions on track and provided links between inputs and outputs while still allowing for creativity, flexibility, and transparency.
- This gray zone game can be adapted to focus on different regions or adversaries, could include additional allies, or could be made into a three-way competition.
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Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Building a Structured Gray Zone Game
Chapter Three
Balkans Gray Zone Game
Chapter Four
Conclusions and Future Applications
Research conducted by
This research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, U.S. Army and conducted by the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program within the RAND Arroyo Center.
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