Iran's Influence in Afghanistan
Implications for the U.S. Drawdown
ResearchPublished Jun 19, 2014
This study explores Iranian influence in Afghanistan and the implications for the United States after most U.S. forces depart Afghanistan in 2016. Iran has substantial economic, political, cultural, and religious leverage in Afghanistan. Although Iran will attempt to shape a post-2014 Afghanistan, Iran and the United States share core interests: to prevent the country from again becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda.
This study explores Iranian influence in Afghanistan and the implications for the United States after the departure of most American forces from Afghanistan. Iran has substantial economic, political, cultural, and religious leverage in Afghanistan. Kabul faces an obdurate insurgency that is likely to exploit the U.S. and international drawdown. The Afghan government will also face many economic difficulties in future years, and Afghanistan is highly dependent on international economic aid. Additionally, the biggest problem facing Afghanistan may be political corruption. Iranian influence in Afghanistan following the drawdown of international forces need not necessarily be a cause of concern for the United States though. Although Tehran will use its cultural, political, and economic sway in an attempt to shape a post-2016 Afghanistan, Iran and the United States share core interests there: to prevent the country from again becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda.
This study examines Iran's historic interests in Afghanistan and its current policies in that country, and explores the potential implications for U.S. policy. The research is based on field interviews in Afghanistan, the use of primary sources in Dari and Persian, and scholarly research in English.
Key Findings
Iranian Influence in Afghanistan Should Not Be a Great Concern for the United States
- Iran and the United States both want to prevent Afghanistan from again becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda.
- A peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis and the continued strengthening of relative pragmatists in the Tehran government could lead to cooperation between Iran and the United States in Afghanistan.
Tensions Between Iran and the United States May Ease
- The departure of most American forces may assuage Iranian anxiety.
- A peaceful resolution to the nuclear issue and reduced tensions between Iran and the United States are likely to reduce Iranian incentives for aiding Taliban elements.
- Moderate leaders in Iran are likely to oppose arming of insurgents and instead advocate a more diplomatic approach.
Recommendations
- The United States should engage the Iranian government in bilateral discussions regarding Afghanistan and pursue joint activities that would serve their mutual interests and build much-needed trust.
- The United States should attempt to cooperate with Iran in countering narcotics in Afghanistan.
- The United States should encourage efforts to bring Tehran and Kabul to an agreement over water sharing.
- The United States should lend logistical or financial support to the UN-facilitated Triangular Initiative.
- Washington should encourage joint Iranian-Pakistani projects if a final nuclear deal with Iran is reached; U.S. attempts to disrupt energy cooperation between the two could be counterproductive.
- Include Iran in regional and international discussions on Afghan security, especially if Iran comes to accept any residual international force in Afghanistan.
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- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Year: 2014
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 70
- Paperback Price: $19.95
- Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-8592-4
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR616
- Document Number: RR-616
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Nader, Alireza, Ali G. Scotten, Ahmad Rahmani, Robert Stewart, and Leila Mahnad, Iran's Influence in Afghanistan: Implications for the U.S. Drawdown, RAND Corporation, RR-616, 2014. As of October 5, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR616.html
Nader, Alireza, Ali G. Scotten, Ahmad Rahmani, Robert Stewart, and Leila Mahnad, Iran's Influence in Afghanistan: Implications for the U.S. Drawdown. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2014. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR616.html. Also available in print form.
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