Japan and the United States are in close alignment regarding their threat perceptions of the regional security environment. This, in turn, leads some to assume that Japan would welcome an even broader array of U.S. military capabilities than are currently deployed in the country. However, the assumption that Japan will accommodate any change in U.S. force posture has been seldom explored in detail. This report does so with ten case studies.

Not Always Easy

Lessons Learned on Introducing New Defense Capabilities in Japan

Jeffrey W. Hornung

ResearchPublished Sep 24, 2024

Japan and the United States are in close alignment regarding their threat perceptions of the regional security environment. This leads Japanese leaders to see it in their national interest to host the largest number of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific. Based on this fact, it is not uncommon to hear in the United States that Japan should welcome an even broader array of U.S. military capabilities. Although Japan has a strategic interest in hosting a robust U.S. presence, the assumption that it will accommodate any change to U.S. force posture has been seldom explored.

This report examines this assumption by assessing the experiences of introducing new capabilities and establishing new bases in Japan. The objective is to draw lessons on what the United States could possibly expect should it seek to introduce more-robust capabilities into the country. This report does so by assessing ten case studies of introducing new U.S. and Japanese capabilities and the construction of new bases in Japan. Collectively, these cases provide a broad spectrum of reactions that lead to several conclusions that can help inform U.S. decisionmakers on the possible range of responses to expect if Washington were to seek to deploy more-robust defense capabilities in Japan in the years ahead. The overarching conclusion reached is that the U.S. military cannot assume that requests for deploying new capabilities into Japan will proceed smoothly or as planned.

Key Findings

Examining past experiences of deploying new defense capabilities in Japan revealed that several factors could inform whether a capability would be successfully deployed

  • Location of the capability matters.
  • The type of capability may matter.
  • Central government agreement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for gaining support to introduce new capabilities.
  • The size of the unit being deployed may matter.
  • Whether a capability requires a new base or can be deployed to on an existing base may not matter in terms of obtaining support.
  • The level of local opposition appears to depend on how directly local communities view the capability as affecting the peace, safety, and security of the community.

Recommendations

  • Support the domestic processes that allow local Japanese communities to voice concerns and address those concerns where possible.
  • Maintain transparency and open communication.
  • Use routine exercises to normalize new types of capabilities or presence.
  • Address local community concerns where possible in order to obtain support.
  • Pick battles carefully; not every community will openly welcome increased U.S. military presence. By the same token, not every community will oppose it.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2024
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 66
  • Paperback Price: $16.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1207-6
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA1300-2
  • Document Number: RR-A1300-2

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Hornung, Jeffrey W., Not Always Easy: Lessons Learned on Introducing New Defense Capabilities in Japan, RAND Corporation, RR-A1300-2, 2024. As of October 10, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1300-2.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Hornung, Jeffrey W., Not Always Easy: Lessons Learned on Introducing New Defense Capabilities in Japan. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1300-2.html. Also available in print form.
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This research was sponsored by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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