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This volume offers a case study in how the Russian military science community conducts and applies forecasting to inform military planning. A RAND Corporation researcher examined materials from 1999 through 2018 to understand some of the key inputs that the Russian military uses in its planning process. The military-political situation, the combined military potential of both Russia and possible allies and adversaries, and the ability of Russia's strategic deterrence potential to mitigate military threats are the key considerations in developing a forecast. The results of the forecast aid decisions on force structure development and military training.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One


  • Chapter Two

    The Role of the General Staff in the Organization of Defense of the Country in Accordance with the New Statute on the General Staff, Confirmed by the President of the Russian Federation

  • Chapter Three

    Assessment of the Military-Political Situation: Methodological Aspect

  • Chapter Four

    On the Quantitative Assessment of the Degree of Military Security

  • Chapter Five

    Forecast of the Military Dangers and Threats to Russia

  • Chapter Six

    The Assessment of the Condition of Russian National and Military Security: Established Process and Possible Paths to Improvement

This publication was sponsored by the Russia Strategic Initiative, United States European Command, and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

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