Nov 1, 2021
Military forecasting informs long-term military planning of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to examine several key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.
The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country's ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses this forecasting to answer (1) what is the likelihood and character of future war and (2) what is the correlation of military potential between Russia and its potential adversaries?
In this report, the authors draw on an established framework to examine key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the answers to these questions.
The Russian military science and academic research that the authors of this report reviewed found that the correlation of military potential (state power) — a broad measure that includes political, economic, scientific-technical, and conventional armed forces indicators — is and will be weighted in favor of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the West and the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region through 2040. The factors that could improve Russia's competitive position are the inclusion of China in the correlation of military potential and the possible reduced ability of the United States to manage the international system in ways that favor its interests.
Russia's current military assessments and forecasts have not found indications of intentions of the United States or China to launch a large-scale war against Russia. The conditions under which Russia might take preemptive military action that risks war with an opponent with superior military potential remain an open question.
The VPO in Russian Military Planning
Russian Conceptions, Assessments, and Forecasts of State Power and Military Potential
Assessing and Forecasting Critical Technologies
Russian Characterizations of the VPO and Military Threats
Indicators of Information Confrontation
VPO Assessment and Forecast Methodology
The Russian Process for Determining Critical Technologies