Alyssa Demus

Associate International/Defense Researcher

Santa Monica Office

Education

M.A. in foreign policy and national security, American University; B.A. in international relations, University of Southern California; B.A. in political science, University of Southern California

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Alyssa Demus is an associate international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research examines Eurasian political and security issues; information warfare and influence campaigns; efforts to counter adversary influence efforts; and perceptions and decisionmaking. Demus is fluent in Ukrainian—a skill she has employed in her research to include interviewing key government, military, security service, and civil society sector interlocutors.

She earned an M.A. in foreign policy and national security from American University's School of International Service, and a B.A. in international relations with a concentration in Russian and Eurasian affairs and B.A. in political science from the University of Southern California.

Research Focus

Languages

Ukrainian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: BBC World News; WBUR; Press Play, KCRW

Commentary

War of the Worlds: How Cognitive Dissonance and Repression Shape Russian Perceptions of the Conflict in Ukraine
Cognitive dissonance theory offers a compelling explanation for one of the confounding phenomena emerging from the war in Ukraine—Russians who refuse to believe their Ukrainian family members' lived experiences of the war. How is it that of the two cognitions Russians are wrestling with, the Kremlin's manufactured truth often prevails?
Jun 29, 2022 InkStick
Reopening Old Wounds: Two Stories, One Lesson
The shocking events unfolding in Ukraine have reopened old wounds for two RAND researchers. Their personal stories stand as testaments that the traumas inflicted by Russia's war on Ukraine will echo for decades to come.
Apr 16, 2022 Inkstick
Don't Sleep on Russian Information War Capabilities
Ukraine looks to have Russia beat in countering Russian disinformation. But this is only part of the story. Instead of fixating on Russia's missteps, policymakers and analysts would benefit from studying Ukraine's sophisticated information campaign while bearing in mind that Russia retains significant information warfare capabilities and a willingness to use them.
Apr 5, 2022 Defense One

Publications

Report
Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning
In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.
Jun 23, 2022
Report
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.
Nov 29, 2021
Report
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality
What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.
Aug 16, 2021
Report
Understanding and Defending Against Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts in Europe
The authors describe apparent efforts by Russia and its agents to use information to shape Russia's operating environment, and they identify possible defensive approaches for United States European Command and its partners.
Aug 16, 2021
Research Brief
Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?
This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Combating Foreign Disinformation on Social Media: Study Overview and Conclusions
Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This overview of a five-volume series presents ways to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.
Jul 19, 2021
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations
Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.
May 27, 2020
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios
Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.
May 27, 2020
Report
Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses
This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, recent events that illustrate attempts at Russian subversion, and ways to improve the response to subversion attempts.
Feb 18, 2020
Report
Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends
The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report focuses on the information warfare activities of Russia and China.
Sep 4, 2019
Report
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.
Nov 20, 2018
Report
Promoting Joint Warfighting Proficiency: The Role of Doctrine in Preparing Airmen for Joint Operations
This report describes the differences and similarities between Air Force and joint doctrine and identifies ways to increase doctrinal alignment. It also evaluates the potential role of doctrine in increasing airmen's joint warfighting proficiency.
Aug 16, 2018
Report
Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
This Perspective proposes a new approach to the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia that would foster greater stability in the region and reduce dangerous tensions in Russia-West relations.
Jun 13, 2018
Report
Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
The perspectives collected in these conference proceedings explore alternatives to the current approaches to the regional order for the states "in between" the West and Russia -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Mar 8, 2018