Alyssa Demus

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

The Trouble with Russian Blacklisting

Analysis, informed by interactions with Russians, offers Western leaders a window into Russia. Blacklists hinder this process. With the stakes so high, much depends on experts' success in getting their analysis right.

War of the Worlds: How Cognitive Dissonance and Repression Shape Russian Perceptions of the Conflict in Ukraine

Cognitive dissonance theory offers a compelling explanation for one of the confounding phenomena emerging from the war in Ukraine—Russians who refuse to believe their Ukrainian family members' lived experiences of the war. How is it that of the two cognitions Russians are wrestling with, the Kremlin's manufactured truth often prevails?

Reopening Old Wounds: Two Stories, One Lesson

The shocking events unfolding in Ukraine have reopened old wounds for two RAND researchers. Their personal stories stand as testaments that the traumas inflicted by Russia's war on Ukraine will echo for decades to come.

Don't Sleep on Russian Information War Capabilities

Ukraine looks to have Russia beat in countering Russian disinformation. But this is only part of the story. Instead of fixating on Russia's missteps, policymakers and analysts would benefit from studying Ukraine's sophisticated information campaign while bearing in mind that Russia retains significant information warfare capabilities and a willingness to use them.

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The Limits of Russian Manipulation: National Identity and the Origins of the War in Ukraine

Using the concept of national identity as a starting point, RAND researchers developed a framework in an effort to illuminate the underlying causes of Russian manipulation, Ukrainian resistance, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

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The Nightingale Versus the Bear: What Persuasion Research Reveals About Ukraine's and Russia's Messaging on the War

The authors examine influence campaigns employed by Ukraine and Russia since February 2022 — both those targeting each state's own people and military personnel and those targeting the adversary — to understand whether the campaigns have been persuasive.

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Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers

The authors combined quantitative and qualitative modes of analysis to better understand and anticipate flashpoints with Russia.

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Deterring Russia and Iran: Improving Effectiveness and Finding Efficiencies

To support defense planners in crafting effective deterrence strategies, RAND researchers assess the impact of U.S. forward presence, exercises and short-term deployments, and security cooperation on deterrence in Europe and the Middle East.

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Resisting Russia: Insights into Ukraine's Civilian-Based Actions During the First Four Months of the War in 2022

The authors examine civilian contributions to Ukraine's aims to regain territorial integrity and maintain political sovereignty. Ukrainian civilian resistance also offers insight into future trends in conventional wars for territorial integrity.

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The Russian General Staff: Understanding the Military's Decisionmaking Role in a "Besieged Fortress"

In this report, the authors develop a foundational text for policymakers and warfighters to improve collective understanding of the Russian General Staff, including its capacity to condition Russia's national security decisionmaking process.

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Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity

In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.

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Rivalry in the Information Sphere: Russian Conceptions of Information Confrontation

Information confrontation, with historical roots in Russian (and Soviet) military thinking, is an important element of Russian military strategy. The Ukrainian experience offers insights into Russia's present-day and future use of information confrontation and hybrid warfare.

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Russian and Ukrainian Perspectives on the Concept of Information Confrontation: Translations, 2002–2020

This volume compiles texts from leading members of the military-scientific communities in Russia and Ukraine and illustrates how decisionmakers in these countries understand and debate information weapons and information influence.

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Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning

In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.

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Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

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Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.

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Understanding and Defending Against Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts in Europe

The authors describe apparent efforts by Russia and its agents to use information to shape Russia's operating environment, and they identify possible defensive approaches for United States European Command and its partners.

Research Brief

Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?

This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.

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Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking

This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.

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Combating Foreign Disinformation on Social Media: Study Overview and Conclusions

Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This overview of a five-volume series presents ways to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.

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Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations

Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.

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Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios

Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.

Commentary

Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses

This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, recent events that illustrate attempts at Russian subversion, and ways to improve the response to subversion attempts.

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Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends

The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report focuses on the information warfare activities of Russia and China.

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What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.

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Promoting Joint Warfighting Proficiency: The Role of Doctrine in Preparing Airmen for Joint Operations

This report describes the differences and similarities between Air Force and joint doctrine and identifies ways to increase doctrinal alignment. It also evaluates the potential role of doctrine in increasing airmen's joint warfighting proficiency.

Commentary

Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

This Perspective proposes a new approach to the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia that would foster greater stability in the region and reduce dangerous tensions in Russia-West relations.

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Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

The perspectives collected in these conference proceedings explore alternatives to the current approaches to the regional order for the states "in between" the West and Russia -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.