Projecting 20 years into the future, the authors aim to stretch thinking beyond the immediate challenges that Australia faces at home and in the Indo-Pacific region. Implications from numerous megatrends should form the basis for medium- and long-term planning. The report alerts the Department of Defence to the most salient issues so that it can design resilient force structures and realise maximum return on its investment.

Forward 2045

A Foresight Study Examining the Implications of Global Trends over the Next 20 Years

Joanne Nicholson, Peter Dortmans

ResearchPublished Aug 29, 2024

By projecting 20 years into the future, the authors of this report aim to stretch thinking beyond the immediate challenges that Australia faces at home and in the Indo-Pacific region. The implications from numerous emerging forces (megatrends) have been determined and presented so that they may inform the basis for medium- and long-term planning. This should be done now because establishing the necessary national response may take decades. The report's analytical aims are to alert the Department of Defence (and increasingly the whole of government) to the most salient issues so that it is better able to anticipate and adapt to threats beyond the most imminent problems of today and, accordingly, design resilient force structures and realise maximum return on its investment in capabilities in those future decades.

Key Findings

  • Threats emerging from natural, technological and social systems are combining with potentially irreversible, perhaps catastrophic, outcomes.
  • If Australia is to deal with a future polycrisis state beyond the current great-power competition, it must start to consider how it can introduce agility into its force structure and to which crises or issues this is best deployed.
  • Developing a model for civil defence could strengthen Australia's capacity for proactive and effective responses to various threats but may require the Australian Defence Force (ADF) to relinquish capability and personnel better suited to domestic disaster relief roles. In exchange, a broader recruitment pool could be established to benefit both a civil defence force and the ADF, enhancing civil preparedness and augmenting the ADF to focus on its priorities.
  • To develop operational expertise, organisational structures that promote experimentation and risk-taking are essential for building trust in new and emerging technologies and are vital if a much bigger range of contingencies beyond conventional warfighting constructs is to be addressed.
  • Some proponents of malicious activity are perpetrating warlike acts deliberately below the threshold of war, especially within the cyber domain and increasingly within space. This is blurring the lines between defence and national security and thus requires the Department of Defence to engage more with ambiguity, not less.
  • The ADF may need to take greater, perhaps leading, roles in information security, addressing both national and international risks and joining forces with civilian organisations to do so.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Nicholson, Joanne and Peter Dortmans, Forward 2045: A Foresight Study Examining the Implications of Global Trends over the Next 20 Years, RAND Corporation, RR-A3441-1, 2024. As of September 11, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3441-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Nicholson, Joanne and Peter Dortmans, Forward 2045: A Foresight Study Examining the Implications of Global Trends over the Next 20 Years. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3441-1.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This research was prepared for the Australian Department of Defence and conducted by RAND Australia.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.